


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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643 FXUS61 KPBZ 070639 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 239 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and storms on Monday along a slow moving cold front could result in heavy rain with localized flooding possible. The boundary stalls Tuesday and an unsettled pattern will bring daily rain chances throughout the week along with near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot on Monday with heat indices in the upper 90s. - Slow moving showers and storms Monday with a heavy rainfall and low-end severe weather threat. - Slight Risk for excessive rainfall covers much of the area. --------------------------------------------------------------- An upper trough is nosing its way into the Ohio Valley and beginning to flatten as it does so. The timing of this trough is likely to kick Chantal`s remnants out to our east and impacts from the remaining rain bands are not expected across our region. Arriving in tandem with the upper trough is a weak cold front draping down from a low sliding through southern Canada. Ahead of this front, warm and moist advection continue in southwesterly flow. This gives the region another chance to see high temperatures over 90 degrees (60-90% south of I-80, tempered further north due to increasing cloud coverage). Heat indices are expected to climb once again and many areas can climb into the mid to upper 90s with a couple of urban areas and valleys striking 100 degrees. Heat advisory criteria are not expected to be met on a widespread or long term basis and thus no heat headlines are anticipated. A couple of showers may be seen across the region in the morning in weak pre-frontal convergence but widespread development of showers and storms waits until the afternoon hours. Heavy rain looks to remain the primary threat from these storms as PWATs are expected to surge north of 1.75 inches, warm cloud depths top 12,000 feet, MUCAPE rises above 1500 J/kg and weak flow with boundary parallel motion vectors allow for upscale growth along the front. HREF probabilities for rainfall rates over 1"/hr show up across much of the region but are at their highest (near 60%) in our northwestern counties. Isolated but non zero probabilities of rainfall rates over 2"/hr show across the region as well. Total amounts through Monday night exhibit a 40-70% probability of one inch, and a 15-30% probability of two inches again with highest chances north of Pittsburgh. With some time to recover since our last heavy rain event, the area won`t be quite as hydrophobic, but soil moistures are still elevated, so a flash flood risk is certainly there. The new day 1 excessive rainfall out look has much of the region in a Slight Risk (2/4). The other mention will be a low-end severe risk as a Marginal Risk (1/5) extends south from our northern border to the Mason Dixon line. With the aforementioned destabilization, we`ll have the instability in play, but shear will be weak overall (<20 knots deep layer). This points toward a water loaded downburst threat given the PWATs, especially in any areas that would see just a bit of mid- level drier air intrusion and nudge up in DCAPE (model soundings already support DCAPE over 1000 J/kg). Hail threat is nearly null given the high moisture content and weak shear both detrimental to hail growth. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Boundary slows and stalls across northern WV maintaining daily precip chances - PWATs remain elevated near the boundary continuing our heavy rain chance into midweek ---------------------------------------------------------------- The boundary is expected to stall out south of Pittsburgh on Tuesday and linger there through midweek. Behind the boundary temperatures are expected to come back down to near normal values for this time of year. Near and along the boundary POPs and PWATs will remain elevated. Showers and storms are expected to fire diurnally each afternoon and evening along the stalled boundary. This continues our risk for heavy rain into midweek and Marginal Risks for excessive rainfall (1/4) remain across our southern counties Tuesday and Wednesday. Our highest POPs remain largely south of the Mason Dixon line Tuesday and Wednesday although lower end shower and storm chances drift as far north as Pittsburgh. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Stalled boundary plagues the area with daily precip chances through the end of the week - Another system favored to move in over the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A developing area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes late this week and pushes the boundary back north as a warm front bringing rain chances north with it. Additional waves of low pressure ride along this boundary and continue rain chances through the end of the week. The boundary finally looks to move out of the region this weekend as another low traverses the Great Lakes and could bring renewed rain chances this weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal through the end of the period with cloud cover and rain chances each day. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cumulus will develop later this morning as lower levels begin to mix and gust out of the southwest. Overall, winds will veer more westerly during the afternoon ahead of a slow- moving front. The mentioned front, which will cross in the afternoon to evening hours, will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms with a conditional severe wind risk, most likely for FKL and DUJ. Cig restrictions are possible in cold advection behind the front Tuesday morning. Outlook... MVFR/IFR cig restrictions are possible in cold advection behind the front overnight into Tuesday morning. The rest of the week will be defined by diurnal storm chances each day. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB/AK NEAR TERM...Cermak/AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...AK AVIATION...88