276
FXUS61 KPBZ 101229
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
829 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions with slightly below normal high temperatures.
  _____________________________________________________________

Broad surface ridging sliding up the the Ohio River Valley will
result in dry conditions today with some diurnal cu development
as convective temperatures are met this afternoon. Deep mixing
into a dry boundary layer will drop dew points a couple degrees
this afternoon and bring down some periodic gusts to 15 mph.
Highs will top out slightly below normal as an upper trough
moves over SE Canada with weak cold advection, and a very
comfortable mid-August day is in store.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and relatively cool temperatures continue through the
  weekend.
  __________________________________________________________

Mostly dry weather will continue with the mentioned high
pressure largely in control. The exception will be areas north
of I-80, where weak shortwaves propagating through the upper
trough could result in a few light showers on Sunday.
Temperatures will run a couple degrees below average underneath
the troughing pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly dry weather continues at least into the middle of next
  week.
- Below-normal temperatures over the weekend moderate towards
  climatology later in the week.
  _____________________________________________________________

The troughing pattern will become more shallow early next week
as the upper low fills and swings toward the Canadian Maritimes
by Tuesday. Broad surface high pressure will remain in place as
well. The result will be the continuation of the overall dry
trend. Once again, a shower or two cannot be ruled out north of
Pittsburgh as ripples of vorticity move through the trough.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal.

Thereafter, the trough axis will eventually take up residence
towards the Atlantic coast, putting our region in more of a
northwest flow situation aloft. High pressure remains at the
surface at least into Thursday, but rain chances may finally
start to reappear towards the end of the week as moisture tries
to increase from the southwest. Temperatures will trend up to
near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence forecast in VFR today. Morning VFR stratocumulus
deck will transition to a scattered cumulus deck later this
morning, at around 6k feet. These cumulus will then dissolve
during the evening, with a mostly clear night.

Once daytime mixing commences and low-level lapse rates steepen,
gust of 15 to 20 knots out of the west are likely, mainly north
of I-70. These gusts will also diminish with sunset.

.Outlook...
General VFR is expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure builds under broad upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...CL/88
AVIATION...CL/Milcarek