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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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276 FXUS61 KPBZ 101229 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 829 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions with slightly below normal high temperatures. _____________________________________________________________ Broad surface ridging sliding up the the Ohio River Valley will result in dry conditions today with some diurnal cu development as convective temperatures are met this afternoon. Deep mixing into a dry boundary layer will drop dew points a couple degrees this afternoon and bring down some periodic gusts to 15 mph. Highs will top out slightly below normal as an upper trough moves over SE Canada with weak cold advection, and a very comfortable mid-August day is in store. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and relatively cool temperatures continue through the weekend. __________________________________________________________ Mostly dry weather will continue with the mentioned high pressure largely in control. The exception will be areas north of I-80, where weak shortwaves propagating through the upper trough could result in a few light showers on Sunday. Temperatures will run a couple degrees below average underneath the troughing pattern. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly dry weather continues at least into the middle of next week. - Below-normal temperatures over the weekend moderate towards climatology later in the week. _____________________________________________________________ The troughing pattern will become more shallow early next week as the upper low fills and swings toward the Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday. Broad surface high pressure will remain in place as well. The result will be the continuation of the overall dry trend. Once again, a shower or two cannot be ruled out north of Pittsburgh as ripples of vorticity move through the trough. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal. Thereafter, the trough axis will eventually take up residence towards the Atlantic coast, putting our region in more of a northwest flow situation aloft. High pressure remains at the surface at least into Thursday, but rain chances may finally start to reappear towards the end of the week as moisture tries to increase from the southwest. Temperatures will trend up to near normal values. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence forecast in VFR today. Morning VFR stratocumulus deck will transition to a scattered cumulus deck later this morning, at around 6k feet. These cumulus will then dissolve during the evening, with a mostly clear night. Once daytime mixing commences and low-level lapse rates steepen, gust of 15 to 20 knots out of the west are likely, mainly north of I-70. These gusts will also diminish with sunset. .Outlook... General VFR is expected through the weekend as surface high pressure builds under broad upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...MLB/88 SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM...CL/88 AVIATION...CL/Milcarek