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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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421 FXUS61 KPBZ 121327 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 927 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry conditions and slightly below-normal temperatures expected to continue through mid-week. Rain chances increase by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages - Dry weather and comfortable conditions today ------------------------------------------------------------------- No changes needed at 9:30 AM. Morning PBZ sounding shows a good deal of warm air above 750mb that will, in concert with subsidence, keep expected cumulus field from building tall enough to generate showers. Forecast is generally on track. Previous discussion... A dry and cool northwest flow aloft will provide another pleasant day with no rain, plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions. Surface high pressure will glide across the Great Lakes which will also assist in keep the area dry. Could see CU develop with daytime heating especially across the northern half of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures remain a couple degrees below average. - Dry weather continues through midweek. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Little change in the overall pattern through mid-week. The area will remain under northwest flow aloft and high pressure will be the main player at the surface. Temperatures will warm a bit each day, especially on Wednesday, as some weak warm air advection is anticipated. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Below-normal temperatures moderate towards climatology in the second half in the week. - Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the week with a shift to a more active pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By mid-week, the upper trough will begin to retrograde off to our northeast and we remain positioned in northwest flow. The general trend will be for gradual height rises and thickness increases as ensembles shift the central CONUS ridge axis eastward. Temperatures will continue to moderate Thursday and it will remain dry as we enter a transition period in the upper level pattern. Ensemble clusters deviate from the mean by Thursday as a trough entering the Pacific Northwest butts up against the ridge. The strength of the lingering ridge is considerably questionable given evidence of a multimodal distribution, as some ensemble members show a more-amplified ridge axis while others depict heights considerably below the ensemble mean. The general evolution is for a break down of the ridge and reintroducing a northwest flow pattern which suggests increasing precipitation potential. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Into the day today, mixing and fair weather cumulus will arrive, with winds increasing out of the northwest. Chances of wind gusts exceeding 20 kts are roughly 0% to 20% and highest for FKL and DUJ. A weak wave passing in the afternoon brings around a 10% chance of a nearby shower for PA ports, this confidence was too low to denote in TAFs. Clearing is largely expected overnight as winds lighten and veer with high pressure advancing. .Outlook... General VFR is expected through early week as surface high pressure builds under broad upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22/MLB NEAR TERM...22/CL SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...Kramar/22/MLB AVIATION...MLB/Milcarek