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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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166 FXUS61 KPBZ 142325 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 725 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Michigan tonight will move into New York and Pennsylvania Thursday bringing quiet weather. Low pressure is expected to cross the Great Lakes Friday and into southwest Ontario on Saturday, pushing a cold front and showers and thunderstorms across the Upper Ohio River valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and comfortable weather continues with temperatures near normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With high over lower Michigan, northeast flow has prevailed this afternoon with mixing to about 7,000 feet. Flat diurnal cumulus field resulted but that will dissipate quickly late this afternoon. Light winds and clear skies are expected tonight as the surface high pushes into southwest Ontario and Pennsylvania and an upper ridge pushes into Indiana and Michigan. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather with slowly rising temperature expected Thursday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weak surface high across PA/NY will gradually shift east as the upper ridge moves across OH and reaches the PA border late Thursday night. With heights building about 30 meters temperatures should be a few degrees warmer and end up about 5 degrees above normal on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Shower/storms chances increases Friday, but timing issues still remain. - The threat for rain continues into Saturday with slow passage of a cold front. - Ensembles favor Great Lakes troughing into early next week that would maintain low probability, diurnally driven convection. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Upper trough currently in the Dakotas is shown to amplify Friday as is moves across northern Wisconsin and then heads for lower Michigan Friday night. Weak height falls are expected over forecast area Friday afternoon, with 40 meter falls at 500 mb Friday night. SPC and CSU MLP have potential for severe thunderstorms with wind damage seemingly slightly more likely especially in Ohio Counties Friday night. NBM mean SBCAPE does rise to about 1,000 j/kg and 500 mb flow of roughly 30 knots suggest enough shear for multi-cell severe convection. PW of 1.5 to 2.0" suggests potential for heavy rainfall as well. Heights continue to slowly fall Saturday and Saturday night as the upper low heads into southwest Ontario. While severe storms will remain possible across the area, it appears that the PA/WV portions will have somewhat higher chances as 500 mb flow increases to about 40 knots and NBM mean SBCAPE reaches 1,500+ j/kg. PW values will be a bit lower, closer to 1.5". Upper trough crawls east across western and central PA on Sunday, with shower chances continuing especially over PA/WV counties. Ensembles indicate that long wave trough will continue to linger in the Great Lakes and Northeast States Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The standard deviation of 500 mb heights in this area gradually increase with time as the details of short wave troughs become less and less evident. NBM provides low rain chances during the period with somewhat higher values on Monday, but confidence is low and it certainly could end up being dry for a few days with northwest flow. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Light winds and clear skies are expected overnight into Thursday under high pressure. Reduced VIS caused by fog may drop FKL, DUJ, and LBE to MVFR between 08z-11z Thursday morning before winds pick up. Low probabilities of IFR could be possible for FKL. CIGs will lower after the end of the TAF period ahead of a shortwave trough. .Outlook... VFR conditions are expected to continue into early Friday morning before a shortwave brings chances of rain showers and thunderstorms to the area. Probabilities of MVFR are around 10%-20% on Friday for all sites due to lowering VIS. An upper level trough moves through on Saturday, causing showers and occasional thunderstorms. MVFR (50%-70%) and IFR (30%-50%) restrictions caused by low CIGs are more likely Saturday morning, but could remain through the afternoon. Periodic showers and thunderstorms with occasional restrictions are possible through Monday with the slow moving trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Craven NEAR TERM...Craven SHORT TERM...Craven LONG TERM...Craven AVIATION...WM/Timmins