208
FXUS61 KPBZ 170828
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
428 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms today with a crossing front will be
followed by dry conditions and seasonable temperatures the
remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front
  crossing over the course of the day.

- Noticeably cooler daytime high temperatures.
  __________________________________________________________________


A front currently across the southern Great Lakes and associated
upper trough will cross the region today, resulting in
scattered showers and storms. As has been the case for several
days, shear profiles point to the possibility of organized (and
possible severe) convection this afternoon depending on how much
instability increases with diurnal heating. SPC has included
areas south and east of PGH in a Marginal Risk for today. Cloud
coverage and timing of FROPA will play a big factor in daytime
highs, but overall, it will be a noticeably cooler day across
the region (10+ degrees F cooler).
&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry. cool conditions Thursday and Friday.
  _________________________________________________________________

Building high pressure out of the west will result in dry
conditions across the region. Low- level cold and dry advection
will keep temperatures near or even a few degrees below average
Thursday and Thursday night with valley fog chances.

Stout mixing into the day on Friday under high pressure will
result in temperatures near normal, and fairly low humidity.
This will leave the area feeling comfortable for the last day of
the work-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly dry weekend with high pressure in control.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Rising heights Saturday/Sunday in response to increased
troughing over the Central Plains may bring moisture back from
the south, but at this time precipitation chances are limited
to the ridges south and east of PGH. With rising heights,
temperatures will trend higher to slightly above normal.
Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front
approaches the region.

&&



.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected for most airports through the morning.
Increasing ascent ahead of an approaching cold front should
result in isolated to scattered showers across the region later
this morning. MVFR cigs are also expected to develop at FKL and
DUJ with moisture pooling closer to the front. Included VCSH in
the TAFs this morning with coverage and timing of any showers
still uncertain.

The cold front is expected to track southeastward across the
Upper Ohio Valley region this afternoon/early evening.
Increasing diurnal instability ahead of the front should result
in scattered thunderstorms developing. Included a VCTS for most
of the taf sites, with coverage uncertain through early-mid
afternoon. Included a tempo for thunderstorms for sites that see
a late afternoon FROPA, generally S-E of PIT, where coverage
should peak during the late afternoon. Will monitor trends for
any additional tempos at other airports. A WSHFT to the
northwest and a VFR stratocu layer are expected after FROPA by
this evening.

.Outlook...
Restrictions in patchy fog are possible early Thursday morning.
Otherwise, VFR is expected Thursday through Sunday under
building high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM