027
FXUS63 KPAH 070735
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled pattern persists through the week with daily rain
  and storm chances.

- Cooler temperatures much of this week with highs in the mid to
  upper 80s. Temperatures warming back the lower 90s on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Weak troughing currently sits over the region this morning with
broad lift keeping a few mid to high level clouds streaming
across. The clouds and weak southwest wind will likely keep fog
from developing. A stalled front was noted to our north, from
Kansas eastward into central Illinois and northern Indiana. Weak
cyclonic flow will remain in place today with a slight increase
in wind fields aloft later this afternoon and evening. Weak
synoptic support from the upper level shortwave traversing the
region will coincide with a destabilizing moist boundary layer,
as a surface front noses in from the north. This will promote
scattered convection across the area, with coverage peaking
during the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler,
with highs in the upper 80s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
will still result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

The active weather pattern will continue the rest of this week.
On Tuesday, we see another shortwave that amplifies as it
pushes into the region. We will see some jet forcing by the
afternoon hours that will provide increasing deep layer forcing
and increased shear. A few strong to possibly severe storms are
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with a Day 2 marginal
risk over most of the region. Beyond Tuesday, weak upper
troughing will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS,
supporting broad cyclonic flow aloft and allowing several low-
amplitude shortwaves to traverse the region. Persistent
southwest low level flow will keep a moist airmass in place for
daily chances of showers and storms. The pattern becomes a bit
more diffuse into the weekend with a weak flow pattern but
transient vort maxima may provide brief periods of enhanced lift
and the potential for daily showers/storms will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

All remaining shower activity is expected to dissipate or be
south of the TAF sites by the beginning of the period. Still
playing scattered diurnal convection, with the exception of KMVN
where a weak cold frontal wind shift is expected about midday.
MVFR ceilings are still expected for few hours in the morning at
KMVN and KEVV. Fog development is possible at KMVN right at the
end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS