


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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600 FXUS63 KPAH 060452 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1152 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and humid conditions forecast through the week. - Rain and storm chances return Sunday and continue through next week with daily chances. - Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving into the upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Seasonably hot and humid today with just a few cumulus clouds bubbling up in the afternoon heat. Observed and model soundings indicate the layer of instability these cu are forming is very shallow and conditions are expected to remain dry through the day with light to moderate south to southwest winds. An area of higher column moisture moves into the area tomorrow afternoon. Synoptic scale forcing is quite limited but the chance for at least a few showers will start to increase by mid to late afternoon and through the overnight hours. Southwest winds near the surface further push the soupy airmass over TX/AR into the area and we get back into a summertime shower and storm pattern with daily chances for precip. There are weak shortwaves that pass along just to the northwest. A few of these could result in a little more intense/focused activity. The risk for severe thunderstorms appears fairly low but the 1.9-2.2" PWATs and slow storm motion will likely require monitoring for flooding at times. Forcing generally though looks to remain fairly diffuse until next weekend when the GFS/ECMWF show a little stronger shortwave pushing through the area and generating more focused activity. Will have to see if that trend holds though as its been fairly inconsistent run to run and a still a ways off. Seasonable heat and humidity remain forecast with highs within a few degrees of 90 each afternoon and dewpoints in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 MVFR fog has already developed at KPAH and see no reason why it won`t hang out all night. KMVN is near saturation and just a few degrees from their cross-over temperature, so through in some MVFR fog there until the mid-level ceilings arrive around sunrise. Southwest winds will increase with mixing in the morning and some gusts to 15kts or a little higher will be possible through the afternoon over most of the region. Scattered TSRA will overspread the region in the afternoon, and may linger into the evening in the southeast. Stuck with the PROB30 treatment, 18Z-24Z at KCGI and KMVN, and 21Z-03Z at the other sites. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...DRS