


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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027 FXUS63 KPAH 070735 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled pattern persists through the week with daily rain and storm chances. - Cooler temperatures much of this week with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures warming back the lower 90s on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Weak troughing currently sits over the region this morning with broad lift keeping a few mid to high level clouds streaming across. The clouds and weak southwest wind will likely keep fog from developing. A stalled front was noted to our north, from Kansas eastward into central Illinois and northern Indiana. Weak cyclonic flow will remain in place today with a slight increase in wind fields aloft later this afternoon and evening. Weak synoptic support from the upper level shortwave traversing the region will coincide with a destabilizing moist boundary layer, as a surface front noses in from the north. This will promote scattered convection across the area, with coverage peaking during the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will still result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. The active weather pattern will continue the rest of this week. On Tuesday, we see another shortwave that amplifies as it pushes into the region. We will see some jet forcing by the afternoon hours that will provide increasing deep layer forcing and increased shear. A few strong to possibly severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with a Day 2 marginal risk over most of the region. Beyond Tuesday, weak upper troughing will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS, supporting broad cyclonic flow aloft and allowing several low- amplitude shortwaves to traverse the region. Persistent southwest low level flow will keep a moist airmass in place for daily chances of showers and storms. The pattern becomes a bit more diffuse into the weekend with a weak flow pattern but transient vort maxima may provide brief periods of enhanced lift and the potential for daily showers/storms will continue. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 All remaining shower activity is expected to dissipate or be south of the TAF sites by the beginning of the period. Still playing scattered diurnal convection, with the exception of KMVN where a weak cold frontal wind shift is expected about midday. MVFR ceilings are still expected for few hours in the morning at KMVN and KEVV. Fog development is possible at KMVN right at the end of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...DRS