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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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742 FXUS63 KPAH 152344 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The best potential for strong to severe storms is 4-9 PM. Storm chances will linger into the night and may continue the strong-severe storm threat, should it materialize. - Heat index values between 100-105 degrees are possible again Friday across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. - Storm chances linger thru week`s end, but cooler and drier, less humid air is forecast to be incoming next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The 12Z modeling suggests the 21z-03z time frame as still the opportune time of development owing to peak instability, but the CAM`s at least do suggest perhaps a slightly slower onset time of development, maybe a little further north and west with it too. This might push it back to 22-24z... something to watch closely. A couple of the CAM`s suggest it will come later, and thus perhaps, carry less of a severe risk. Pops do spike overnight as the wave makes its way across central IL. All the severe weather parameters are basically unchanged and so damaging winds will continue to be the primary severe weather potential hazard, should one occur, with heavy rain/localized flooding also a highlight hazard. Pops will linger thru the end of the week as the primary long wave trof driving all of the storm activity makes its way across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This may contain a marginal risk of a strong-svr storm during peak heating Friday but the best threat for that is today-tonight. Heat/humidity may threaten Advisory levels near 105 again tmrw but continued clouds/pcpn chances preclude us from a more widespread headline issuance. Similarly the FFG is so high that we`ll take a short fuse vs Watch headline approach to heavy rain/flooding potential as well. Eventually some slightly cooler/drier air works in for next week, and we see some 50s dew points return to the forecast by the back end of the week...that`ll be an incredible 2nd bout of 50s dew points in August. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Scattered convection this evening is expected to mainly stay confined to northern terminals. A bit of a lull may occur before additional convection moves through overnight, possibly more focused across the south half of the region. Brief reductions to MVFR or lower vsbys and cigs are possible, but should largely remain VFR outside of any TSRA. Activity largely exits the region by 12z. Light and variable winds tonight will become southwesterly around 6-9 kts tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...SP