742
FXUS63 KPAH 152344
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best potential for strong to severe storms is 4-9 PM.
  Storm chances will linger into the night and may continue the
  strong-severe storm threat, should it materialize.

- Heat index values between 100-105 degrees are possible again
  Friday across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern
  Illinois, and far western Kentucky.

- Storm chances linger thru week`s end, but cooler and drier,
  less humid air is forecast to be incoming next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The 12Z modeling suggests the 21z-03z time frame as still the
opportune time of development owing to peak instability, but the
CAM`s at least do suggest perhaps a slightly slower onset time
of development, maybe a little further north and west with it
too. This might push it back to 22-24z... something to watch
closely. A couple of the CAM`s suggest it will come later, and
thus perhaps, carry less of a severe risk. Pops do spike
overnight as the wave makes its way across central IL. All the
severe weather parameters are basically unchanged and so
damaging winds will continue to be the primary severe weather
potential hazard, should one occur, with heavy rain/localized
flooding also a highlight hazard.

Pops will linger thru the end of the week as the primary long
wave trof driving all of the storm activity makes its way across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This may contain a marginal
risk of a strong-svr storm during peak heating Friday but the
best threat for that is today-tonight.

Heat/humidity may threaten Advisory levels near 105 again tmrw
but continued clouds/pcpn chances preclude us from a more
widespread headline issuance. Similarly the FFG is so high that
we`ll take a short fuse vs Watch headline approach to heavy
rain/flooding potential as well.

Eventually some slightly cooler/drier air works in for next
week, and we see some 50s dew points return to the forecast by
the back end of the week...that`ll be an incredible 2nd bout of
50s dew points in August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Scattered convection this evening is expected to mainly stay
confined to northern terminals. A bit of a lull may occur before
additional convection moves through overnight, possibly more
focused across the south half of the region. Brief reductions to
MVFR or lower vsbys and cigs are possible, but should largely
remain VFR outside of any TSRA. Activity largely exits the
region by 12z. Light and variable winds tonight will become
southwesterly around 6-9 kts tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...SP