600
FXUS63 KPAH 060452
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1152 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions forecast through the week.

- Rain and storm chances return Sunday and continue through next
  week with daily chances.

- Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving
  into the upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Seasonably hot and humid today with just a few cumulus clouds
bubbling up in the afternoon heat. Observed and model soundings
indicate the layer of instability these cu are forming is very
shallow and conditions are expected to remain dry through the
day with light to moderate south to southwest winds. An area of
higher column moisture moves into the area tomorrow afternoon.
Synoptic scale forcing is quite limited but the chance for at
least a few showers will start to increase by mid to late
afternoon and through the overnight hours.

Southwest winds near the surface further push the soupy airmass
over TX/AR into the area and we get back into a summertime
shower and storm pattern with daily chances for precip. There
are weak shortwaves that pass along just to the northwest. A few
of these could result in a little more intense/focused activity.
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears fairly low but the
1.9-2.2" PWATs and slow storm motion will likely require
monitoring for flooding at times. Forcing generally though looks
to remain fairly diffuse until next weekend when the GFS/ECMWF
show a little stronger shortwave pushing through the area and
generating more focused activity. Will have to see if that trend
holds though as its been fairly inconsistent run to run and a
still a ways off. Seasonable heat and humidity remain forecast
with highs within a few degrees of 90 each afternoon and
dewpoints in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

MVFR fog has already developed at KPAH and see no reason why it
won`t hang out all night. KMVN is near saturation and just a few
degrees from their cross-over temperature, so through in some
MVFR fog there until the mid-level ceilings arrive around
sunrise. Southwest winds will increase with mixing in the
morning and some gusts to 15kts or a little higher will be
possible through the afternoon over most of the region.
Scattered TSRA will overspread the region in the afternoon, and
may linger into the evening in the southeast. Stuck with the
PROB30 treatment, 18Z-24Z at KCGI and KMVN, and 21Z-03Z at the
other sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS