941
FXUS63 KPAH 160809
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
309 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Training thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall may lead to
  some flash flooding problems along and south of a Van Buren
  Missouri to Hickman Kentucky line through daybreak.

- Heat index values between 100-110 degrees are possible again
  today across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern
  Illinois, and far western Kentucky.

- A chance of thunderstorms continues for late tonight through
  Saturday evening. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be
  possible Saturday afternoon.

- Dry and very pleasant weather is expected for the entire work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A band of thunderstorms extends along and just north of the
Missouri Arkansas border. The storms are producing torrential
rainfall and may lead to some flash flooding, especially in the
Ozark Foothills. The convection is generally moving eastward
and developing southward, and should slip south of the region by
12Z and before major flash flooding can develop. Once this
convection moves out of the area this morning, the rest of the
day should be dry throughout the Quad State.

The NBM dewpoints today are on the high side of the guidance
envelope, but that worked out well yesterday, so will run with
those higher numbers today. With temperatures expected to max
out in the middle 90s over the southwest half of the region this
afternoon, heat indices will range from 103-110, with the worst
conditions expected over Carter and Ripley counties. Similar to
yesterday, the impact of this morning`s convection is unknown.
They could limit heating or dewpoints, so we will run with a
Special Weather Statement to address the heat and humidity again
today. A Heat Advisory may be issued later today if confidence
improves.

Scattered showers and storms may stream southeast mainly over
southeast Missouri after midnight tonight. They may reach west
Kentucky after daybreak, and should slip south of the area
before midday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns.

The cold front will not move through the region until Saturday
night, so with temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in
the lower 70s, at least scattered convection is expected to
develop in the afternoon. There may be enough shear to support a
few severe storms throughout the Quad State through the
afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds would once again
be the main severe concern to go along with heavy rainfall and
lightning.

A significant upper trough will move slowly east into the Great
Lakes through Saturday and then develop southward into the Ohio
Valley Sunday. This will push a cold front through the Quad
State Saturday night and lead to a significant cooling and
drying trend as we head into next week. But first, there is some
potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the Evansville Tri State and Pennyrile Sunday afternoon due
to the cool core of the aforementioned upper trough. Brief heavy
downpours and lightning will be the main concerns on Sunday.

Northwest flow aloft and dry and cooler surface high pressure
will dominate the Quad State through the upcoming work week.
Temperatures will be well below normal and humidity will be
quite low. North or northeast winds may gust a bit Sunday and
Monday, but should settle down for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Scattered convection will move through overnight, largely
exiting the region by 12-14z. Brief reductions to MVFR or lower
possible overnight. Otherwise VFR cigs expected through the
period. Light and variable winds tonight become SW tomorrow
morning and then eventually NW through the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP