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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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941 FXUS63 KPAH 160809 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 309 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Training thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall may lead to some flash flooding problems along and south of a Van Buren Missouri to Hickman Kentucky line through daybreak. - Heat index values between 100-110 degrees are possible again today across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. - A chance of thunderstorms continues for late tonight through Saturday evening. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible Saturday afternoon. - Dry and very pleasant weather is expected for the entire work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A band of thunderstorms extends along and just north of the Missouri Arkansas border. The storms are producing torrential rainfall and may lead to some flash flooding, especially in the Ozark Foothills. The convection is generally moving eastward and developing southward, and should slip south of the region by 12Z and before major flash flooding can develop. Once this convection moves out of the area this morning, the rest of the day should be dry throughout the Quad State. The NBM dewpoints today are on the high side of the guidance envelope, but that worked out well yesterday, so will run with those higher numbers today. With temperatures expected to max out in the middle 90s over the southwest half of the region this afternoon, heat indices will range from 103-110, with the worst conditions expected over Carter and Ripley counties. Similar to yesterday, the impact of this morning`s convection is unknown. They could limit heating or dewpoints, so we will run with a Special Weather Statement to address the heat and humidity again today. A Heat Advisory may be issued later today if confidence improves. Scattered showers and storms may stream southeast mainly over southeast Missouri after midnight tonight. They may reach west Kentucky after daybreak, and should slip south of the area before midday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. The cold front will not move through the region until Saturday night, so with temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s, at least scattered convection is expected to develop in the afternoon. There may be enough shear to support a few severe storms throughout the Quad State through the afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds would once again be the main severe concern to go along with heavy rainfall and lightning. A significant upper trough will move slowly east into the Great Lakes through Saturday and then develop southward into the Ohio Valley Sunday. This will push a cold front through the Quad State Saturday night and lead to a significant cooling and drying trend as we head into next week. But first, there is some potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Evansville Tri State and Pennyrile Sunday afternoon due to the cool core of the aforementioned upper trough. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the main concerns on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft and dry and cooler surface high pressure will dominate the Quad State through the upcoming work week. Temperatures will be well below normal and humidity will be quite low. North or northeast winds may gust a bit Sunday and Monday, but should settle down for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Scattered convection will move through overnight, largely exiting the region by 12-14z. Brief reductions to MVFR or lower possible overnight. Otherwise VFR cigs expected through the period. Light and variable winds tonight become SW tomorrow morning and then eventually NW through the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...SP