232
FXUS63 KPAH 101121
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal
  continue through the weekend.

- Temperatures warm to near normal next week as humidity
  increases.

- Daily chances of showers and storms enter the forecast Monday.
  Potential for some stronger storms or flooding issues midweek
  exists, but significant uncertainty remains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A few high clouds are drifting eastward through the Quad State
early this morning. Much drier air has moved into the area with
early morning lows in the upper 50s for most locations. High
pressure is in control this weekend, with the center crossing
the Quad State during the day Sunday. Temperatures will be up to
10 degrees below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80
today and only slightly warmer Sunday. Lows trend similarly,
again in the upper 50s to near 60 tonight and slightly higher
Sunday night.

Ridging builds into the Central Plains for the early week with a
warm front lifting into Missouri. The warm front will be the
focal point for early week ridge rider systems disturbances. The
first is Monday; however, high pressure will weaken storms on
approach which will limit impacts locally.

As high pressure shifts further east midweek, potential
increases for thunderstorms and heavy rain for the Quad State.
Some stronger storms are possible, along with training heavy
rain along the boundary leading to flooding issues, but
significant spread remains across the ensembles on timing and
positioning. DESI highlights Tuesday night to Wednesday evening
as the best chance of having PW above 2 inches. The current QPF
forecast reflects this with most of the 1-3 inches occurring
between Tuesday evening and Thursday morning. Greater potential
exists northwest of the Quad State with the more favorable LLJ
orientation. Temperatures may warm to near normal midweek, and
are very likely to do so for low temperatures, but highs may be
suppressed, especially in the north, if sustained heavy rain
occurs during daytime hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Calm winds
this morning will become northerly at 5-10 kts, then become calm
again in the evening. Scattered 8000-12000 ft cloud coverage
increases during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL