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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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228 FXUS63 KPAH 100834 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal continue through the weekend. - Temperatures warm to near normal next week as humidity increases. - Daily chances of showers and storms enter the forecast Monday. Potential for some stronger storms or flooding issues midweek exists, but significant uncertainty remains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A few high clouds are drifting eastward through the Quad State early this morning. Much drier air has moved into the area with early morning lows in the upper 50s for most locations. High pressure is in control this weekend, with the center crossing the Quad State during the day Sunday. Temperatures will be up to 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 today and only slightly warmer Sunday. Lows trend similarly, again in the upper 50s to near 60 tonight and slightly higher Sunday night. Ridging builds into the Central Plains for the early week with a warm front lifting into Missouri. The warm front will be the focal point for early week ridge rider systems disturbances. The first is Monday; however, high pressure will weaken storms on approach which will limit impacts locally. As high pressure shifts further east midweek, potential increases for thunderstorms and heavy rain for the Quad State. Some stronger storms are possible, along with training heavy rain along the boundary leading to flooding issues, but significant spread remains across the ensembles on timing and positioning. DESI highlights Tuesday night to Wednesday evening as the best chance of having PW above 2 inches. The current QPF forecast reflects this with most of the 1-3 inches occurring between Tuesday evening and Thursday morning. Greater potential exists northwest of the Quad State with the more favorable LLJ orientation. Temperatures may warm to near normal midweek, and are very likely to do so for low temperatures, but highs may be suppressed, especially in the north, if sustained heavy rain occurs during daytime hours. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through Saturday as scattered mid/high level clouds increase from the west late tonight into Saturday. Light northerly winds less than 10 knots will prevail. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...RJP