141
FXUS63 KPAH 102008
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
308 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal
  continue through Sunday.

- Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through the
  work week.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast
  Monday. Heavy rainfall and flooding issues are still possible,
  and even some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out,
  mainly in the middle of the week. Confidence in the details
  remains quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A large mass of mid-level clouds will overspread the region
tonight, but with calm winds and dry air in place, lows tonight
will still fall to around 10 degrees below normal levels. The
mid-level clouds may linger through the morning over portions of
the region Sunday. Highs will generally be 5-10 degrees below
normal.

A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley for the first half of the
work week, which will result in northwest flow aloft over the
Quad State. At the surface, no significant return flow is
expected, as high pressure remains in control. Upper-level
impulses in that northwest flow aloft will bring daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms to the region. However, the lack of
low-level moisture return will likely limit thunderstorm
coverage and intensity, especially early in the week.

There is a fairly consistent signal amongst the latest guidance
for a healthy area of convection to move southeast across
Missouri Sunday night and into the Quad State Monday. It will
be outrunning its low-level forcing and any semblance of low-
level moisture as it reaches our area. Therefore, the convection
should be weakening as it approaches and may struggle to make
it far into the region Monday.

Confidence in the details of convective possibilities Monday
night through the remainder of the week are quite low. However,
the upper ridge will attempt to build eastward closer to the
Quad State mid-week, which would seemingly support at least one
good round of convection with a heavy rainfall threat somewhere
across the Quad State Tuesday night through Thursday. WPC QPF
has come down quite a bit from the previous cycle and now ranges
from around 0.5" in the east to 1.5"-2" in the northwest.
Flooding is still a concern, but the latest guidance is not
quite so bullish. As for severe weather, there will be some
decent flow aloft, so if we can moisten up the second half of
the week, a few strong to severe storms would still be possible.

The forecast from Monday through next Saturday will be at the
mercy of convective processes, which will impact virtually all
forecast elements through the week. Those details may not come
into view more than a day out, so patience is in order through
the week. In general, temperatures should approach normal levels
by the end of the week, but convection could hold them down.
The NBM seems to be quick to increase dewpoints, given the lack
of return flow, which could keep low temperatures from trending
upward so quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The TAFs are VFR. A few northwesterly gusts to 15kts will be
possible mainly in the northeast this afternoon. A few cumulus
are expected today followed by 8-12kft ceilings over much of the
region tonight into the morning. Cannot rule out a brief period
of MVFR fog tonight at KMVN before the mid-level ceiling arrives.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS