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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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141 FXUS63 KPAH 102008 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 308 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal continue through Sunday. - Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through the work week. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast Monday. Heavy rainfall and flooding issues are still possible, and even some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, mainly in the middle of the week. Confidence in the details remains quite low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A large mass of mid-level clouds will overspread the region tonight, but with calm winds and dry air in place, lows tonight will still fall to around 10 degrees below normal levels. The mid-level clouds may linger through the morning over portions of the region Sunday. Highs will generally be 5-10 degrees below normal. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley for the first half of the work week, which will result in northwest flow aloft over the Quad State. At the surface, no significant return flow is expected, as high pressure remains in control. Upper-level impulses in that northwest flow aloft will bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region. However, the lack of low-level moisture return will likely limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity, especially early in the week. There is a fairly consistent signal amongst the latest guidance for a healthy area of convection to move southeast across Missouri Sunday night and into the Quad State Monday. It will be outrunning its low-level forcing and any semblance of low- level moisture as it reaches our area. Therefore, the convection should be weakening as it approaches and may struggle to make it far into the region Monday. Confidence in the details of convective possibilities Monday night through the remainder of the week are quite low. However, the upper ridge will attempt to build eastward closer to the Quad State mid-week, which would seemingly support at least one good round of convection with a heavy rainfall threat somewhere across the Quad State Tuesday night through Thursday. WPC QPF has come down quite a bit from the previous cycle and now ranges from around 0.5" in the east to 1.5"-2" in the northwest. Flooding is still a concern, but the latest guidance is not quite so bullish. As for severe weather, there will be some decent flow aloft, so if we can moisten up the second half of the week, a few strong to severe storms would still be possible. The forecast from Monday through next Saturday will be at the mercy of convective processes, which will impact virtually all forecast elements through the week. Those details may not come into view more than a day out, so patience is in order through the week. In general, temperatures should approach normal levels by the end of the week, but convection could hold them down. The NBM seems to be quick to increase dewpoints, given the lack of return flow, which could keep low temperatures from trending upward so quickly. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The TAFs are VFR. A few northwesterly gusts to 15kts will be possible mainly in the northeast this afternoon. A few cumulus are expected today followed by 8-12kft ceilings over much of the region tonight into the morning. Cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR fog tonight at KMVN before the mid-level ceiling arrives. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS