226
FXUS63 KPAH 111719
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal
  continue today.

- Temperatures and humidity gradually increase through the work
  week.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast
  Monday. Heavy rainfall and flooding issues are still possible,
  and even some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out,
  mainly in the middle of the week. Confidence in location and
  timing details remains limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mid-level cloud cover early this morning has overperformed
relative to model forecasts, keeping temperatures and dew points
a bit more elevated than expected at this point. T and Td have
been nudged higher as a result, with early morning lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Partial clearing during the day is
likely, but continued clouds and the passage of high pressure
should keep highs on track to the near 80 to lower 80s.

A warm front sitting over Oklahoma very slowly lifts northward
and eastward as high pressure gradually shifts away from the
Quad State. A storm cluster tonight in Missouri is expected to
weaken on approach to the Quad State as forcing becomes much
less favorable and moisture is limited. Temperatures remain well
below normal during the day Monday but a warming trend begins
as moisture increases Monday night onward.

Improvements in moisture and forcing are expected mid-week,
with the warm front slowly lifting northeastward. WPC QPF holds
onto 0.5 inch in the southeast and 1.5-2 inches in the
northwest between late Tuesday and Thursday night. Potential for
training heavy rain exists with PW of 1.75 to 2 inches (though
the high end may be overestimated in the earlier stages of
midweek given the limited flow), which could lead to flooding,
but ensembles are lacking focus in location and timing, keeping
uncertainty elevated. Despite the improved moisture and
comparatively improved environment, shear and instability are
still fairly limited. A few strong storms are possible. Severe
potential appears unlikely, but day to day storm development
will depend much on the previous rounds and rouge boundaries
might give a needed extra boost. Temperatures trend warmer mid
to late week, with the caveat of convection limiting highs.

Previous model cycles had developed the Central Plains low into
a large system over the Ohio River Valley next weekend but seem
to be trending further north. With this shift, PoPs next
weekend are mainly in the slight chance range and highs near
normal appear more likely. However, there`s plenty of time for
adjustments at this range with much occurring in between.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The TAFs are VFR. Some 6-8kft clouds may provide an occasional
ceiling condition at KCGI, KMVN and KPAH this afternoon. A few
showers may reach KMVN and KCGI by the end of the forecast
period, but little impact is expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS