149
FXUS63 KPAH 121131
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
631 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible today.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

WV imagery this morning shows mid/upper lvl troughing extending
across the Great Lakes and Midwest. A disturbance was seen
moving into Missouri resulting in a line of storms. Isolated
storms are still ongoing at the current hours across southern
Illinois likely the result of modest moisture advection. An
additional isolated storm or two is possible early this morning.
The aformentioned upper lvl wave is forecast to continue moving
east today which will bring additional isolated to scattered
storms. Weak forcing on Saturday should result in mostly dry
conditions, with any precipitation confined to areas north of
I-64. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs
in the upper 80s to near 90, but increase into the lower 90`s
on Saturday.

Upper lvl troughing breaks down Sunday with broad ridging
extending from the desert southwest to across the southeast.
Increasing southerly flow develops resulting in increasing
temperatures through Tuesday with highs in the mid 90`s.
Increasing dewpoints during this time will favor heat indices
near 105 degrees. By midweek we see amplification aloft as a
potent trough swings through the Great Lakes and northeast. This
will push a cold front through the region resulting in
increasing chances of showers and storms. Drier and cooler
weather arrives behind the front Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon. Only mention at this point is at CGI and MVN. Skies
will be mostly clear today and tonight. Winds will be generally
light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD