733
FXUS63 KPAH 121804
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
104 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms into this evening.
  Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, with
  damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Visible satellite and water vapor imagery shows an MCV sliding
across southern MO toward the CWA this afternoon. Along and ahead of
that feature, isolated to scattered showers and storms have
developed. Very little shear is around for the storms to work with;
however, there is a decent amount of instability around 2000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE. That may lead to a brief pulse-type severe storm or
two, but it is not expected to be widespread. The main threat would
be damaging winds as the storms collapse. In fact, the area is still
under a marginal risk of severe through this evening. The added
moisture from any rainfall, along with light winds overnight, will
lead to at least patchy fog across the area. Some locally dense fog
is not out of the question, again, where the rain occurs this
afternoon.

As weak troughing lingers aloft across the area for Saturday, expect
some scattered afternoon cloud cover along with a an isolated shower
or storm in the afternoon. Coverage will likely be reduced from what
it was this afternoon.

The focus then turns to broad upper-level ridging across most of the
central CONUS. This will lead to a steady increase in temperatures
through the middle of the work week. This will begin on Sunday and
then linger through at least Tuesday/Wednesday. Southerly flow will
steadily increase through that time period as well, pushing relative
humidity values up along with heat index values. High temperatures
will push into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values reaching
and exceeding 105 degree Sunday through at least Tuesday. This will
easily be in the Heat Advisory headline criteria. A cold front will
arrive for Wednesday into Thursday increasing the chances for
showers and storms while allowing for a bit cooler weather for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will impact the TAF sites this afternoon
before diminishing this evening. The storms may briefly lead to
reduced visibility and erratic winds. Otherwise, some patchy fog
may develop overnight, especially where any rain falls today.
Improving conditions with light winds expected for Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$