405
FXUS63 KPAH 191928
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
228 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend,
  but will remain below normal for the next 7 days.

- Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms return
  to the forecast Saturday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

An inverted surface trough is currently poking north into
southwest Tennessee. There is some evidence of this boundary
developing northward into west Kentucky overnight tonight and
into Saturday. Low-level moisture will likely increase east of
the boundary and there will be some potential for at least
shallow instability to develop over west Kentucky. Tonight
remains dry, but we do have small chance PoPs over more of west
Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Deep instability cannot be
completely ruled out, especially down near Ft Campbell, so
thunderstorms are mentioned in the forecast.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with troughing just
to the west of the area and increasing low-level moisture
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
west Kentucky Sunday afternoon and then over the entire area
each afternoon from Monday through next Friday. Shear will be
weak and instability somewhat limited, so locally heavy rainfall
and lightning will be the main concerns.

Guidance seems to have shifted the trough a bit closer to the
Quad State next week and also tries to eject much of the energy
northeast and out of it over the second half of the week. The
best coverage of convection next week should be Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Temperatures will slowly modify through the weekend, and some
locations may reach the upper 80s Sunday. However, clouds and
convection should keep temperatures in the lower to middle 80s
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The TAFs are VFR with light winds. A nice cu field has developed
today, and guidance strongly suggests that coverage of 4-7kft
clouds will increase tonight and continue through Saturday
morning. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out,
especially in the Ft Campbell vicinity.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS