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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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198 FXUS64 KOHX 082321 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weak southerly flow has kicked in this morning and as advertised, dew points have responded. Low 70s are being seen on the bottom left of the plotted METARs across Middle TN. Pockets of sun are going to continue to allow air temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s this afternoon, but we are seeing some light rain showers on radar this morning. While not currently widespread, they are offering some brief relief from the heat. These showers will slowly translate to the northeast through the afternoon hours, possibly becoming a little more widespread as more light returns slip into Middle TN from north MS and west TN. Rainfall totals should be less than a tenth of an inch for anyone through this afternoon. The big story in this forecast package continues to be the remnants of Beryl and how they`ll affect the mid-state tomorrow. Latest guidance suggests a slightly more northeasterly track to the surface low and if you were with me yesterday, that was the one thing I was looking for to increase a severe weather threat. While it`s still not an incredibly high threat by any means, in an otherwise modestly unstable environment, 40 kts of deep layer shear and 0-1km helicities close to 100 would support some rotating storms. There are a few things going against the severe threat. Mainly the filling (weakening) of the surface low through the day tomorrow and very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, in a quasi-tropical environment, the lapse rates don`t usually prove to be all that important. So, let`s call it from about 2 pm until 8 pm tomorrow, areas west of I-65 will run a small chance of a quick spin-up tornado. In addition to the very limited tornado risk, we`ll see breezy conditions under the tightened pressure gradient and PWs north of 2.0 inches will provide for very efficient rainfall in any storm. Current WPC QPF shows less than an inch for any spot in Middle TN. This is probably pretty spot on, but any training could provide more than an inch. Bottom line, there are no flooding concerns, but a garden or two might be thankful. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Beyond tomorrow, models continue to show dry conditions. This is unfortunate as tomorrow`s rainfall will be pretty limited. If I squint, I could see VERY isolated diurnal storm chances this weekend, but I think the bulk of the forecast after tomorrow is going to consist of (at best) 20 PoP on any given day and increasingly warm temperatures with mid 90s making a return by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Scattered convection has been popping up this afternoon over parts of Middle Tennessee, although the activity is now diminishing, and the overnight period should be largely free of any active weather. Tomorrow we expect an increase in rain chances after 12Z, and better storm chances during the afternoon as remnants from TS Beryl start to affect the mid state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 76 94 72 86 / 20 80 70 30 Clarksville 73 88 69 84 / 40 80 90 20 Crossville 69 88 69 79 / 10 70 40 40 Columbia 73 95 69 85 / 20 80 70 20 Cookeville 72 89 70 79 / 10 70 40 40 Jamestown 71 88 69 80 / 10 70 40 40 Lawrenceburg 73 93 70 84 / 20 80 70 20 Murfreesboro 74 95 72 85 / 20 70 50 30 Waverly 72 90 67 84 / 50 80 80 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Rose