006
FXUS64 KOHX 091700
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

General consensus of latest CAMs, North American, and even Global
Model solutions showing present area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across southwestern portions of mid state region
taking a northeasterly track with showers/thunderstorms initiating
along and ahead of this movement as afternoon into early evening
hours progress with a surface cold front associated with
associated surface low of what is now post tropical cyclone Beryl
moving into southern IL, with surface front moving into Cumberland
Plateau Region shortly after midnight tonight as surface low
continues to progress northeastward and eventually push surface
front well to the east of mid state region as surface low moves
into upper Ohio River Valley Region by shortly after sunrise on
Wednesday. Surface high pressure influences will build in from
the west as day progresses on Wednesday as initial upper level
troughing moves through our area tonight with broad upper level
troughing influences across our area through Wednesday afternoon.
Tier of model blend agreement also continued noted on best
potential of strong to potentially some severe thunderstorms, that
with enough low level atmospheric shear to support possible
development of a few isolated tornadoes through at least 10/00Z
for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region with potential
continuing across Cumberland Plateau Region through at least early
evening hours. SPC has just upgraded locations around and north
of I-40 Corridor and around and west of I-65 Corridor in a slight
risk area, with most remainder of mid state region in a marginal
risk. Still looking for seasonally warm temperatures and humid
conditions this afternoon. Lingering showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across mainly northern portions tonight and
across eastern portions of our area on Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be near seasonal normal values. With frontal passage on
Wednesday, highs will only span the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Dry conditions in a generally non descriptive weather pattern
will persist Wednesday night into first part of upcoming weekend.
Look for shower and thunderstorm chances to return Sunday into
first part of next work week. Hot and humid conditions will once
again return to mid state region also.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions continue. The remnants of Beryl will bring widely
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances across the area this
afternoon, especially for BNA/MQY/CKV. Best timing for TSRA
potential is reflected in tempos. Category restrictions will be
likely as storms impact terminals. Outside of storm activity,
southerly winds will increase due to a tightening surface pressure
gradient. This will result in gusts of 20-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  70  88  69 /  60  70   0   0
Clarksville    89  68  85  66 /  80  30   0  10
Crossville     88  65  80  61 /  40  80  20   0
Columbia       94  68  88  66 /  40  40   0   0
Cookeville     89  68  81  63 /  50  80  20   0
Jamestown      88  66  79  61 /  50  80  20  10
Lawrenceburg   93  68  87  65 /  50  70   0   0
Murfreesboro   95  69  89  66 /  50  70   0   0
Waverly        90  65  86  66 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Baggett