727
FXUS64 KOHX 142321
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
621 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Late morning temperatures are into the lower 90s. The dewpoints have
remained in the upper 60s to near 70, yielding a modest but positive
HI influence. An area of surface high pressure does reside across
northern middle TN and should help to yield a tendency toward
subsidence in the afternoon. 18Z cap strengths to diminish so we
could again see some isolated convection across our south. Pattern
looks similar again for Monday with slightly stronger late afternoon
lift phasing with an increase in moisture across our south. Maybe
some scattered convection late in the day. Tuesday is not looking
that active either. Although, there is a slight uptick of convection
as some upper shortwave amplification is indicated.

For the near term temps, still looking rather hot although latest
NBM numbers have backed down a degree or two. The lower level
trajectory appears to remain land locked just enough to prevent an
upward spike in dewpoints. So for the above reasons, will refrain
from any heat advisory issuance for Monday. As additional data comes
in, however, the advisory may be issued soon. Otherwise, high
temperatures still look like upper 90s to near 100 and max heat
index values close to 105F. Tuesday may include a slight increase in
humidity as lower level wind trajectories become more favorable. HI
values may tick upward a degree or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

In the extended forecast, not much has changed as the pattern
becomes increasingly active. A frontal boundary is still expected to
drop slowly southward and give us some likely pops for the midweek
timeframe. Then as we transition into late week and the weekend,
some pronounced troughing will persist across the region with the
axis located along the lower and mid MS valleys. So, rain chances to
persist daily with our overall qpf totals chiming in at around a
1/2 inch west to up to 1 1/2 inches east.

For our extended temps, one more hot day on Wednesday with the front
approaching. At that time we should see highs in the mid 90s.
Following this, a welcomed break from the heat is expected as highs
drop down in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will drop into the upper
60s. This is very close to normal, perhaps a degree or two below.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours with light winds.
Monday afternoon will bring more pop up thunderstorms. It looks
like the best chance will be S and E of BNA so included VCTS for
CSV, SRB, and MQY given the isolated nature of storms that might
pop up. Predominate winds will be out of the SW Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  99  77  98 /  10  20  10  30
Clarksville    73  96  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
Crossville     68  92  69  90 /  10  30  20  50
Columbia       72  98  74  98 /  10  30  10  40
Cookeville     70  93  71  92 /  10  20  20  40
Jamestown      70  92  70  90 /  10  20  20  40
Lawrenceburg   72  96  72  96 /  10  30  20  40
Murfreesboro   73  99  74  98 /  10  20  20  40
Waverly        72  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Cravens