436
FXUS64 KOHX 101711
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Dry weather will take hold through Thursday afternoon as upper
level troughing develops and surface riding influences continue
to persist across mid state region. Pleasant day so far and look
for that to continue with highs spanning 80s by this afternoon
with lower afternoon humidity values as compared to previous days.
Continues to look like patchy to areas of fog will form late
evening through overnight hours as calm winds and favorable
dewpoint depressions develop. Seasonally warm conditions will
return to our area on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will range
from generally upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau
Region. Uncomfortable afternoon humidity values will creep back
into our area also factoring into our personal calculation of
what you consider to be comfortable summer type weather also.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

It looks like dry conditions will continue through Tuesday morning
across mid state region with finally isolated to scattered showers
entering into forecast again next Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon. Upper level ridging influences which will
initially dominate the long term forecast period will weaken
slightly enough to allow some low level moisture to sneak into our
area. As for those upper level ridging influences, they will be
strong enough with a diffuse/unorganized surface pattern being in
place across our area to raise afternoon high temperatures once
again into at least upper 90s in some locations west of Cumberland
Plateau Region, temperatures spanning the 90s elsewhere, with
some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, Sunday through
potentially next Wednesday, topping out around century mark.
At least through first part of weekend though, consensus model
guidance continuing to show afternoon dewpoint values ranging mid
60s Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 70s northern TN River
Valley Region and locations approaching Land Between the Lakes
Region through at least the upcoming weekend. Thus initially, it
looks like some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region.
especially approaching TN River Valley Region on Saturday
and Sunday afternoons may approach around 105 degree heat index
values. However, it is really going to take maximum strength
influences of upper level ridging centered across central MS River
Valley Region by late Monday, stretching across much of central
and southern half of CONUS, to potentially support heat index
values ranging 105-110 degrees across some locations west of
Cumberland Plateau Region, heat advisory thresholds, on Monday
afternoon, with potentially similar if not slightly more
widespread conditions for locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region by Tuesday afternoon as above mentioned apex of upper
level ridging influences shift eastward with dewpoints becoming
more established in upper 60s to mid 70s range. Even with
potential by afternoon hours on Wednesday of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with undercutting lower level moisture, highs will
continue to span the 90s across our area with some locations
approaching century mark, a rinse and repeat forecast for heat
advisory conditions could persist for most locations west of
Cumberland Plateau Region next Wednesday afternoon also. Looking
for some relief during nighttime hours? Lows around seasonal
normal values on Thursday night will rise into at least mid 70s
for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region by first part of
next week also. Thus muggy conditions will persist through
nighttime hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. FEW to SCT clouds 040-060. Northerly
winds under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  93  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    67  90  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
Crossville     60  86  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       66  93  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     63  86  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      61  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   65  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   66  93  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        66  90  68  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Mueller