073
FXUS64 KOHX 200600
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
100 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There are a couple light showers on radar at the moment otherwise
it is quiet with temperatures in the 70s. A few more showers may
develop closer to dawn as a wave lifts up from the south. Shower
and storm activity will become more widespread through the day on
Saturday as the surface boundary approaches the area. The forecast
is on track and no major changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Very pleasant start to the day today with lower temperatures and
much more comfortable humidity levels. Relative humidity values
across Middle Tennessee this morning are near 60% with
temperatures just now getting into the mid to upper 70s. Showers
have lingered around our south this morning, but QPE amounts
aren`t amounting to much with so much dry air aloft. A shortwave
trough is moving through the area today that will aid in lifting
the boundary currently over Alabama north. CAMs have struggled
capturing the northern extent of the moisture associated with the
boundary, thus have bumped PoP values up slightly for the near
term. For the remainder of today, shower and any thunderstorm
chances should largely be confined to the southern half of the
area as well as along the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures today
and tonight will be much closer to typical July readings with an
afternoon high of 87 at Nashville and lows in the upper 60s. Look
for rain to become more widespread Saturday as the aforementioned
boundary continues to move north through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The long term forecast features a wetter pattern with slightly below
average temperatures. Hopefully some drought relief will be found
over the next week. Our upper air pattern keeps troughing over the
majority of the Ohio Valley accompanied by southwesterly flow.
The southerly component will help bring more moisture back into
the area while the westerly component will help stream in a
series of disturbances through the week. No one day really stands
out for severe weather potential. Overall, shear and lapse rates
will be poor and not conducive for a widespread severe threat.
Tuesday is the only day that looks to have a bit better forcing as
global models are showing a cold front pushing through the area.
Model soundings do not look alarming, though. With all of this
being said, rain chances are in the forecast each day with
forecast rainfall totals between 1 to 2.5 inches for the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

CKV low confidence in tstm development thru 21/06Z. Mentioned
best 4 hour windows for tstm development with low VFR/MVFR
ceiling thresholds and MVFR/IFR vsbys with variable winds and
gusts to 25kts possible. Generally went vicinity shwrs
20/18Z-21/05Z. Models trending toward sct shwrs possible before
20/18Z, but confidence not high enough in development to mention
currently. Generally light S sfc winds with VFR conditions until
21/03Z. IFR/MVFR vsbys per patchy fog/MVFR ceilings thru 21/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  72  90  72 /  60  30  40  40
Clarksville    85  68  86  69 /  40  10  30  40
Crossville     79  64  81  64 /  80  40  50  50
Columbia       87  69  88  68 /  70  30  30  30
Cookeville     80  67  83  67 /  80  30  40  40
Jamestown      79  66  82  65 /  80  30  40  40
Lawrenceburg   86  68  87  67 /  70  30  30  40
Murfreesboro   86  70  89  69 /  70  30  40  40
Waverly        86  67  87  68 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....JB Wright