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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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877 FXUS64 KOHX 110523 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 No major forecast changes were made this evening. Quiet night is ahead with dry conditions, clear skies, and light winds. Some patchy fog may develop overnight, but if it does, it will diminish after sunrise. Similar day is on tap for tomorrow although temperatures will warm a few degrees compared to today. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Dry weather will take hold through Thursday afternoon as upper level troughing develops and surface riding influences continue to persist across mid state region. Pleasant day so far and look for that to continue with highs spanning 80s by this afternoon with lower afternoon humidity values as compared to previous days. Continues to look like patchy to areas of fog will form late evening through overnight hours as calm winds and favorable dewpoint depressions develop. Seasonally warm conditions will return to our area on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will range from generally upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Uncomfortable afternoon humidity values will creep back into our area also factoring into our personal calculation of what you consider to be comfortable summer type weather also. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 It looks like dry conditions will continue through Tuesday morning across mid state region with finally isolated to scattered showers entering into forecast again next Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Upper level ridging influences which will initially dominate the long term forecast period will weaken slightly enough to allow some low level moisture to sneak into our area. As for those upper level ridging influences, they will be strong enough with a diffuse/unorganized surface pattern being in place across our area to raise afternoon high temperatures once again into at least upper 90s in some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, temperatures spanning the 90s elsewhere, with some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, Sunday through potentially next Wednesday, topping out around century mark. At least through first part of weekend though, consensus model guidance continuing to show afternoon dewpoint values ranging mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 70s northern TN River Valley Region and locations approaching Land Between the Lakes Region through at least the upcoming weekend. Thus initially, it looks like some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region. especially approaching TN River Valley Region on Saturday and Sunday afternoons may approach around 105 degree heat index values. However, it is really going to take maximum strength influences of upper level ridging centered across central MS River Valley Region by late Monday, stretching across much of central and southern half of CONUS, to potentially support heat index values ranging 105-110 degrees across some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, heat advisory thresholds, on Monday afternoon, with potentially similar if not slightly more widespread conditions for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region by Tuesday afternoon as above mentioned apex of upper level ridging influences shift eastward with dewpoints becoming more established in upper 60s to mid 70s range. Even with potential by afternoon hours on Wednesday of scattered showers and thunderstorms with undercutting lower level moisture, highs will continue to span the 90s across our area with some locations approaching century mark, a rinse and repeat forecast for heat advisory conditions could persist for most locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region next Wednesday afternoon also. Looking for some relief during nighttime hours? Lows around seasonal normal values on Thursday night will rise into at least mid 70s for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region by first part of next week also. Thus muggy conditions will persist through nighttime hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions continue this TAF cycle. Winds will stay light and variable through the period with speeds generally 5 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 86 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 92 68 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 86 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 86 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 91 66 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Baggett