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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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047 FXUS63 KOAX 120008 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 708 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase to 50 to 80 percent tonight, small potential for a strong storm across eastern NE this evening. - Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond. - Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the upcoming work week, especially during the evening through early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 It has been mostly cloudy to cloudy today with cool temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There were a few spotty sprinkles this morning that generally didn`t measure. And additional spotty, isolated heavier showers have developed this afternoon. There is a short wave moving off the eastern edge of the northern Rockies, and this is expected to help generate more widespread shower and storms moving from west to east. The severe weather threat generally remains west of the forecast area tonight, although there still is a window of opportunity for a stronger storm across eastern NE this evening, overall the severe weather threat is low in our area. Storms do have the potential for heavy downpours, and rainfall by morning could average from one to two tenths on the light side, to as much as an inch for some areas. Low temperatures tonight drop into the lower 60s. There could be a few lingering showers along/east of the Missouri River Monday morning, but the afternoon should be dry with still below normal temperatures mostly in the lower to middles, but could reach the lower 80s near the NE/KS border. The next wave moving through the mean upper ridge that remains to our west could graze southeast NE along the KS border by Tuesday morning, and the northwestern extent of that system could impact parts of eastern NE, but doubtful any of the rain could make it to southwest IA. Tuesday should still be cooler than normal with highs in the middle to upper 70s. The next shortwave pushing through the mean ridge comes into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing Pops back in to the 50-60% range, with another one quarter to one half inch of rain possible. Wednesday sees temperatures climbing a little closer to normal mostly into the 80s, with highs into the upper 80s near the KS border. The wave train continues, with another upper level wave bringing more rain chances to the region Wednesday night, with rain chances again increasing to 50-60%, with another one quarter to one half inch of rain possible. Highs Thursday in the 80s, again, closer to normal. The remainder of the forecast has small daily chances for rain, but the confidence in the details remains low. The models begin to diverge, and the blending of the various components results in generally climatological Pops Thursday night through Sunday, with high temperatures remaining in the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 707 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A broken line of thunderstorms will push through the area late this evening and bring some thunder and locally heavy rainfall. Visibility could slip below 5 miles with heaviest rain, though it isn`t included in the TAFs due to low likelihood at any give location. Already MVFR conditions have developed at KOFK and low cigs will linger through the night. Expect IFR cigs to eventually develop at all locations by 11Z. Have also included some reduced visibility (4SM) at KOFK was fog may develop by sunrise. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Nicolaisen