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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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034 FXUS63 KOAX 121124 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 624 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond. - Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the work week, especially during the evening through early morning hours. The entire area has a 60+ percent chance of seeing at least 1/2" of rain through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The well-advertised showers and storms associated with a strong shortwave trough had largely passed to the east as of 3 AM, but a few spotty storms were lingering in the area with low level moisture transport pointing toward the area. Instability remained modest, with SPC objective mesoanalysis indicating around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but deep layer shear remained strong, providing some degree of storm organization. As a result, a storm or two could be strong enough to produce hail and gusty winds through around 7 AM, but severe weather is rather unlikely. After that, a few spotty showers could linger in parts of the area today, but shouldn`t amount to much and most should stay dry. Otherwise, it`ll be another cooler and fairly cloudy day for most of the area, with highs in the 70s, though decreasing cloud cover near the NE/KS border should allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s. For tonight through Tuesday morning, while larger scale upper level ridging will start to push in, an embedded shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will slide through, bringing another shot of showers and storms. Still some questions on just how far north into the area the precip will extend with CAMs keeping most of it in KS and many larger scale models/ensemble members bringing it north to at least Interstate 80. As a result, keeping precip chances in the 40-50% range near the NE/KS border, tapering off to around 10-20% north of Interstate 80. With limited shear and instability, not expecting any severe weather at this time. Rain chances should taper off Tuesday afternoon, though we`ll remain cooler-than-average with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. We`ll continue to see periodic shower and storm chances through at least the remainder of the work week as a series of shortwave troughs slide through the area. Current model consensus suggests chances will peak during the evening through early morning hours with perhaps some spotty light showers during the day (similar to what we saw Monday and what we`ll see today). Severe weather chances still look to be on the lower side, but we do start to get a little bit more moisture and instability in the area by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a warm front surges northward through the area, so that may be a time period to watch. Regarding rainfall amounts, ensemble guidance suggests the entire area will have a 60+ percent chance of at least 1/2 inch through Thursday and 40-70 percent chance for 1 inch. So it does look like there will be some decent rainfall to be had, but of course some will likely miss out as well. Otherwise, the aforementioned front will also bring a return to near- average temperatures with widespread highs in the 80s looking to last into next week. For late Thursday into the weekend, guidance is starting to show a little more agreement that a stronger shortwave trough will slide through Thursday into Friday with a cutoff low eventually spinning up to our east. This will leave us under northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building in for the weekend. This should lead to an overall drier period (assuming the precip associated with the low stays to our east), though there remain hints at some weak bits of shortwave energy diving southeastward at times and bringing additional light rain chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Lingering showers should push out of eastern Nebraska within the next couple of hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail until around 16Z when patchy fog clears out and VFR cloud heights return. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...KG