143
FXUS63 KOAX 262334
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this evening
  across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid
  90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the
  weekend. Heat indices up to 100-105 are possible.

- Storms return to the northern portions of the area by
  Saturday evening, a few of which could be severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Today

Showers and thunderstorms waned briefly this morning as the stronger
forcing shifted off to our northeast. Temperatures have ramped up
into the mid 80s this afternoon, with dew points pushing into the
70s, bolstering instability once more. Storms fired in the vicinity
of the boundary draped from Beatrice to Mapleton, IA early this
afternoon. Shear vectors look to be marginal, at 20-30kts, likely
not sustaining strong updrafts for hail production. However, we
could see a few strong to severe wind gusts reach the surface this
afternoon and evening. While these showers and storms could produce
isolated heavy rainfall amounts, with PWATs up to 2", the CAMs
indicate these storms should be fairly progressive, mitigating some
of the flooding potential. Additionally, the heaviest rain this
evening will likely fall over southeast Nebraska and into southwest
Iowa, missing the area that received 1"-4" of rain yesterday.

Storms are expected to clear the forecast area by 10 PM this
evening, with quiet conditions prevailing through the overnight
hours. Light winds and abundant moisture across the region could
lead to the development of some patchy fog over northeast Nebraska
into western Iowa late tonight into early Friday morning.

Friday through Sunday...

Zonal flow will overspread the forecast area through the day Friday,
as southerly winds draw warm moist air back into the region. Highs
on Friday will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s. A shortwave
rippling along the NE/SD border could kick off some storms Friday
afternoon/evening, with the best chance at rain being over northeast
Nebraska.

Dry conditions return Friday night into Saturday with highs pushing
into the 90s, although it will feel more like 100-105 in the shade
with dewpoints pushing into the low 70s. The warm moist conditions
indicate the potential for a well-juiced atmosphere with 2000-3000+
J/kg of CAPE. Luckily, no forcing mechanisms arrive to set off
storms until late Saturday night when a surface trough drifts into
northeast Nebraska. Should these storms develop, they will likely be
offset from the greatest instability, and shear once again looks to
be lacking. That being said, these parameters still appear
sufficient to support at least a Slight Risk for strong to severe
storms creeping into Northeast Nebraska overnight.

Spotty precipitation could linger into Sunday morning, with renewed
storm chances developing along a frontal boundary Sunday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures remain warm through the weekend, with
highs in the 90s again Sunday and heat indices approaching 100.

Monday and Beyond...

High pressure developing over the southern CONUS should help us dry
out a bit more into early next week, however the occasional ridge
running shortwave could bring us spotty precip throughout the coming
week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions this evening as storms are staying off to the
east. Clearing skies and calming winds will set up a good
environment for fog or haze development. Models are really
highlighting northeast Nebraska for the greatest potential (80%)
for fog overnight tonight. There is some uncertainty in how far
south the fog bank will extend, so expect an 80% chance for fog
at KOFK, and 60% chance at KOMA. Fog shouldn`t get as far south
as KLNK, but this site could see some haze develop (with a 20%
chance for fog). Light and variable winds overnight will
become predominantly southeasterly Friday morning and increase
as fog is clearing around 14-15Z. Expect mostly clear skies
through the remainder of the TAF period

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...McCoy