935
FXUS63 KOAX 181114
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly west
  of Highway 77.

- Mostly dry through the school/work week.

- Heating up late next week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Today and tonight:

An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed across south-
central South Dakota in association with a passing mid-level
shortwave. This activity appears to have developed along an 850mb
front and latest CAMS do spread this activity southeastward along
the boundary through the morning hours. The most recent runs of the
HRRR show this activity continuing throughout much of the day across
a large portion of the western half of the forecast area,
generally west of Highway 77. Drier low-levels to the east of
this area will likely hinder any beneficial rainfall amounts
east of Highway 77. With increased cloud cover, high
temperatures should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Precipitation chances may fester into the evening hours,
especially just to the west of our forecast area. Precipitation
should push entirely off to our west by dark as dry surface high
pressure begins to advect south into the region.

Monday through next week:

A return of quiet and dry conditions are expected to begin the
work/school week with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Chances for
precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday continue to dwindle
with a mostly dry forecast throughout the period. A gradual warming
trend is looking likely into next weekend with highs by Saturday in
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The main concern of the TAF period is ongoing showers and storms
that are poised to spread south and east over the course of the
morning and early afternoon, affecting KOFK first followed by
KLNK. In addition, some patchy fog/mist is also in place where
the calmest winds are currently and will affect KOFK and areas
north and east through 13z before dissipating. Winds will be
out of the east today, generally moving at less than 10 kts
before falling back northeasterly after sunset. Any remaining
rain or storm chances should wrap up by 20z with KOMA only
seeing showers in it`s western/southwestern vicinity.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Petersen