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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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935 FXUS63 KOAX 181114 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly west of Highway 77. - Mostly dry through the school/work week. - Heating up late next week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Today and tonight: An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed across south- central South Dakota in association with a passing mid-level shortwave. This activity appears to have developed along an 850mb front and latest CAMS do spread this activity southeastward along the boundary through the morning hours. The most recent runs of the HRRR show this activity continuing throughout much of the day across a large portion of the western half of the forecast area, generally west of Highway 77. Drier low-levels to the east of this area will likely hinder any beneficial rainfall amounts east of Highway 77. With increased cloud cover, high temperatures should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s. Precipitation chances may fester into the evening hours, especially just to the west of our forecast area. Precipitation should push entirely off to our west by dark as dry surface high pressure begins to advect south into the region. Monday through next week: A return of quiet and dry conditions are expected to begin the work/school week with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Chances for precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday continue to dwindle with a mostly dry forecast throughout the period. A gradual warming trend is looking likely into next weekend with highs by Saturday in the 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The main concern of the TAF period is ongoing showers and storms that are poised to spread south and east over the course of the morning and early afternoon, affecting KOFK first followed by KLNK. In addition, some patchy fog/mist is also in place where the calmest winds are currently and will affect KOFK and areas north and east through 13z before dissipating. Winds will be out of the east today, generally moving at less than 10 kts before falling back northeasterly after sunset. Any remaining rain or storm chances should wrap up by 20z with KOMA only seeing showers in it`s western/southwestern vicinity. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Petersen