669
FXUS63 KOAX 172033
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
333 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Next widespread rain chances will be Friday evening into Sunday.
  There are additional spotty rain chances into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

This afternoon through Thursday:

After the weekend heat, today is an absolute stunner of a day
with temperatures around 80 degrees this afternoon, partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and humidity down around 40 to 45
percent. The pattern supporting this absolutely phenomenal
weather is a trough to our east creating nearly meridional flow
pouring dry, cooler air out of north-central Canada down into
the Northern Plains and eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. While
we do see a shift to southeasterly winds at the surface tomorrow
morning, we still remain under the northerly flow aloft, keeping
this pattern in place one more day.

Friday through Sunday:

Late Thursday we start to see the trough to our east start to
shift off to the northeast as well as the approach of a
shortwave trough down the eastern side of the ridge over the
western CONUS. This will push the belt of moisture advection
eastward into northeast Nebraska by Friday morning bringing
chances for showers to this area, while the rest of our area
should remain dry during the day on Friday until the arrival of
the shortwave and the cold front Friday night. Models have this
boundary stalling across our area Saturday morning, keeping
showers and storms prevalent through the day on Saturday, though
severe potential remains low.

Sunday, the surface low continues to meander around the MO-KS-
NE-IA region, generating scattered showers and storms. Moisture
may eventually become more cutoff during the afternoon as the
low starts to shift farther east so precip chances start to
drop but don`t completely go away.

Monday through Tuesday:

Going into early next week we transition into a fairly
baroclinic pattern with continued moisture advection. We`ll have
enough instability each afternoon and evening for isolated to
scattered showers and storms, but not enough shear for any
organized severe weather.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain out of the northeast today. We may see some scattered
clouds develop this afternoon around 4000-5000 feet but these
will dissipate after sunset. Winds will become light and
possibly variable overnight as they shift to the southeast by
Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy