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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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543 FXUS66 KMTR 112338 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 438 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 115 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Notable cooling begins today, with temperatures at or below seasonal averages through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 159 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A developing trough over open water to our west will continue to deepen and approach the California central coast tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures inland today are running approximately five degrees cooler than yesterday, and will be about another five degrees cooler tomorrow as H50 height falls and decreasing thickness values coincide with the deepening trough overhead by tomorrow evening. Low marine stratus and fog are expected once again to fill in low lying areas and valleys along our coastal locations. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 159 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 No significant changes in the long term forecast. The signal for warmer temperatures on Wednesday has increased as the shortwave ridging is more amplified as it passes across our area. A sharp transition to troughing over our region on the backside of the progressive ridge later in the day Wednesday into early Thursday will result in breezy winds across elevated locations inland and valleys and gaps closer to the coast. Cooler temperatures are expected to persist through the remainder of the extended forecast and beyond as a continuous trough pattern reinforces the cooler airmass. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 436 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals. With a steady marine layer of about 1,000 feet, there is high confidence that all terminals with the exception of LVK will develop LIFR-IFR ceilings tonight. Widespread VFR will prevail by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Slant range visibilities will likely be reduced due to haze and smoke. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. An IFR ceiling is forecast to impact the terminal overnight with VFR prevailing by late-morning. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest through the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots to be expected in the afternoons and evenings. SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds will filter in at 03Z and linger through 20Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at both terminals. LIFR ceilings are forecast to impact the terminals this evening through tomorrow morning. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 436 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with coastal jets developing along the coastline from Point Arena to Point Reyes and from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas. Moderate significant wave heights with moderate northwesterly swell and light southerly swell will continue to move through the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea