988
FXUS66 KMTR 140547
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1047 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 420 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this week,
as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Temperatures were near or slightly cooler than mid August normals
today. It was quite a nice day nearest the coast and bays in regards
to temperatures, warmest to hottest inland of course where the sea
breeze is usually to often less to much less effective at cooling.
It was sunny all across the forecast area today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Temperatures had a slight uptick today with observations showing
about 1-5 degrees increase (mostly interior areas) compared to
yesterday. Overnight temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s,
with isolated higher terrains in Monterey County seeing 70s. The
upper-level trough will move to the east, allowing room for a upper-
level ridge to build over our area from the high pressure system in
the southwest. Highs for Wednesday will reach mostly 70s to 80s,
with some higher terrains and isolated areas in the 90s. Expect to
see another round of some patchy low clouds near the coast tonight,
but these clouds will be limited along coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper-level pattern will start becoming more zonal, causing
minimal changes for weather conditions. Temperatures will stay
near seasonal or slightly below normal. Maximum temperatures will
stay in the 70s and 80s inland, and 60s along the coast.
Overnight, temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s across the
board. Winds will predominately stay out of the west and will be
breezy and gusty during the afternoon hours along the coast and
within valleys, passes and gaps. This will be something to factor
into fire weather concerns due to dry fuels, but at this moment,
pretty relatively calm weather through early next week. Ensembles
and clusters analysis continues to show agreement that a troughing
pattern returns this weekend, which will help rebuild some of the
marine layer and allow even cooler temperatures. Chances for
below normal seasonal temperatures are likely as Climate
Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook shows our area is projected to
have below seasonal temperatures through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Currently VFR across the region, though stratus is expected to bring
MVFR CIGs to a few select terminals early Wednesday morning. Namely,
Monterey Bay and KOAK. Winds light overnight. Any stratus that does
develop is expected to clear towards sunrise, leading to a return of
VFR through the remainder of the TAF period for most terminals.
Breezy winds return in the afternoon Wednesday, then ease to become
light into the evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. FEW to SCT low clouds
may form around the terminal this morning as stratus filters into
the bay towards KOAK, however, low confidence in any CIGs forming at
KSFO. Moderate winds and gusts nearing 20 knots return in the
afternoon of Wednesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs expected to develop in the early
morning hours of Wednesday, accompanied by light winds. CIGs clear
towards sunrise, ushering in a return to VFR. Models seem to hint at
a slightly earlier return of stratus Wednesday night for KMRY,
though confidence on this is only moderate. This will be something
to keep an eye on in future TAF updates.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over California is supporting a fresh NW breeze with moderate
seas. The gradient will tighten over the next few days, generating
a strong NW breeze. Starting Wednesday, gale force gusts are
possible within a coastal jet south of Point Sur and isolated
near gale force gusts become possible off of Point Arena. Elevated
winds will continue through the end of the work week before
beginning to diminish over the weekend. Seas will remain moderate
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...Kennedy

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