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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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988 FXUS66 KMTR 140547 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1047 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 420 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this week, as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Temperatures were near or slightly cooler than mid August normals today. It was quite a nice day nearest the coast and bays in regards to temperatures, warmest to hottest inland of course where the sea breeze is usually to often less to much less effective at cooling. It was sunny all across the forecast area today. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Temperatures had a slight uptick today with observations showing about 1-5 degrees increase (mostly interior areas) compared to yesterday. Overnight temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s, with isolated higher terrains in Monterey County seeing 70s. The upper-level trough will move to the east, allowing room for a upper- level ridge to build over our area from the high pressure system in the southwest. Highs for Wednesday will reach mostly 70s to 80s, with some higher terrains and isolated areas in the 90s. Expect to see another round of some patchy low clouds near the coast tonight, but these clouds will be limited along coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The upper-level pattern will start becoming more zonal, causing minimal changes for weather conditions. Temperatures will stay near seasonal or slightly below normal. Maximum temperatures will stay in the 70s and 80s inland, and 60s along the coast. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s across the board. Winds will predominately stay out of the west and will be breezy and gusty during the afternoon hours along the coast and within valleys, passes and gaps. This will be something to factor into fire weather concerns due to dry fuels, but at this moment, pretty relatively calm weather through early next week. Ensembles and clusters analysis continues to show agreement that a troughing pattern returns this weekend, which will help rebuild some of the marine layer and allow even cooler temperatures. Chances for below normal seasonal temperatures are likely as Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook shows our area is projected to have below seasonal temperatures through the next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Currently VFR across the region, though stratus is expected to bring MVFR CIGs to a few select terminals early Wednesday morning. Namely, Monterey Bay and KOAK. Winds light overnight. Any stratus that does develop is expected to clear towards sunrise, leading to a return of VFR through the remainder of the TAF period for most terminals. Breezy winds return in the afternoon Wednesday, then ease to become light into the evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. FEW to SCT low clouds may form around the terminal this morning as stratus filters into the bay towards KOAK, however, low confidence in any CIGs forming at KSFO. Moderate winds and gusts nearing 20 knots return in the afternoon of Wednesday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs expected to develop in the early morning hours of Wednesday, accompanied by light winds. CIGs clear towards sunrise, ushering in a return to VFR. Models seem to hint at a slightly earlier return of stratus Wednesday night for KMRY, though confidence on this is only moderate. This will be something to keep an eye on in future TAF updates. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1046 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over California is supporting a fresh NW breeze with moderate seas. The gradient will tighten over the next few days, generating a strong NW breeze. Starting Wednesday, gale force gusts are possible within a coastal jet south of Point Sur and isolated near gale force gusts become possible off of Point Arena. Elevated winds will continue through the end of the work week before beginning to diminish over the weekend. Seas will remain moderate throughout the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...AC MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea