604
FXUS66 KMTR 150037
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
537 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this week,
as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The marine layer continues to compress as the shortwave ridge
continues to move eastward through our area. Following behind will
be a upper-level trough giving way for a slight increase in the
marine layer depth, but overall will remain to the coast and within
valleys. Although temperatures today showed a slight increase of 1-3
degrees higher than yesterday, overall temperatures tonight will be
relatively the same as last night with minimum temperatures
lowering to the 50s and low 60s. Max temperatures for Thursday
will continue the trend from previous days of a 1-3 degree
difference across the board. Inland areas will see mostly 70s and
80s with some isolated spots seeing 90s, while coastline will see
no noticeable change with temperatures in to 60s. Onshore winds
will have a slight increase Thursday afternoon into the evening,
but will be limited to the coast and along the valleys, gaps, and
passes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The upper-level zonal pattern will promote a rinse and repeat theme
through the end of the week. Temperatures will fluctuate between a
few degrees but will remain near normal or slightly below normal
seasonal temperatures. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the
50s to 60s across the board, while the max temperatures will
remain in the 70s and 80s inland and 60s along the coast. Although
the winds will become gusty and breezy during the afternoon and
evening hours, no major fire concerns as we see good overnight
recoveries. The upper-level pattern then starts to show a deep
troughing pattern over our area by the weekend due to the upper-
level low that will be situation west of Oregon. This will make
way for a deeper marine layer, stronger winds along the coast,
passes and gaps during afternoon and evening hours, and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The marine layer depth varies from near sea level to a few hundred
feet along the coastal North Bay to approx 1200 feet from the Golden
Gate southward to coastal Monterey County. Inland and part of the
coastline is VFR except for a couple areas of coastal stratus and
fog /LIFR-IFR/ per satellite imagery and surface observations.
HREF shows increasing coastal stratus and fog tonight and Thursday
morning with an inland intrusion of LIFR-IFR conditions. Diurnal
surface warming and vertical mixing Thursday bringing MVFR-VFR
conditions back to near the coastline by late morning and early
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Onshore westerly wind has increased recently
with peak wind gusts to 33 knots so far. Stratus is converging
along the ocean side of SF Peninsula along with some drying on
northwest winds. Low to moderate confidence this keeps VFR going
into the evening, it`ll depend on how much coastal stratus actually
fills in to the north through the evening. Otherwise the forecast
is VFR for tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore wind decreasing
to 10 to 15 knots late tonight and Thursday morning, resuming to
20 to 30 knots Thursday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Visible imagery shows late afternoon
clearing occurring around the Monterey Bay nearby the terminals.
Otherwise post sunset night-time cooling will help bring about a
return of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ conditions into Thursday
morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning
and afternoon. Winds mainly onshore 5 to 15 knots during the 00Z
TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 447 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The gradient between subtropical high pressure over the East
Pacific and lower pressure over California is supporting a fresh
to strong NW breeze and moderate sea heights across the waters.
Conditions will be fairly consistent before a brief improvement
Saturday morning. This won`t last long as a weak cold front moves
through and gusty winds return by Sunday morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Flynn

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