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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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604 FXUS66 KMTR 150037 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 537 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 342 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this week, as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The marine layer continues to compress as the shortwave ridge continues to move eastward through our area. Following behind will be a upper-level trough giving way for a slight increase in the marine layer depth, but overall will remain to the coast and within valleys. Although temperatures today showed a slight increase of 1-3 degrees higher than yesterday, overall temperatures tonight will be relatively the same as last night with minimum temperatures lowering to the 50s and low 60s. Max temperatures for Thursday will continue the trend from previous days of a 1-3 degree difference across the board. Inland areas will see mostly 70s and 80s with some isolated spots seeing 90s, while coastline will see no noticeable change with temperatures in to 60s. Onshore winds will have a slight increase Thursday afternoon into the evening, but will be limited to the coast and along the valleys, gaps, and passes. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The upper-level zonal pattern will promote a rinse and repeat theme through the end of the week. Temperatures will fluctuate between a few degrees but will remain near normal or slightly below normal seasonal temperatures. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s across the board, while the max temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s inland and 60s along the coast. Although the winds will become gusty and breezy during the afternoon and evening hours, no major fire concerns as we see good overnight recoveries. The upper-level pattern then starts to show a deep troughing pattern over our area by the weekend due to the upper- level low that will be situation west of Oregon. This will make way for a deeper marine layer, stronger winds along the coast, passes and gaps during afternoon and evening hours, and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The marine layer depth varies from near sea level to a few hundred feet along the coastal North Bay to approx 1200 feet from the Golden Gate southward to coastal Monterey County. Inland and part of the coastline is VFR except for a couple areas of coastal stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ per satellite imagery and surface observations. HREF shows increasing coastal stratus and fog tonight and Thursday morning with an inland intrusion of LIFR-IFR conditions. Diurnal surface warming and vertical mixing Thursday bringing MVFR-VFR conditions back to near the coastline by late morning and early afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Onshore westerly wind has increased recently with peak wind gusts to 33 knots so far. Stratus is converging along the ocean side of SF Peninsula along with some drying on northwest winds. Low to moderate confidence this keeps VFR going into the evening, it`ll depend on how much coastal stratus actually fills in to the north through the evening. Otherwise the forecast is VFR for tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore wind decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late tonight and Thursday morning, resuming to 20 to 30 knots Thursday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Visible imagery shows late afternoon clearing occurring around the Monterey Bay nearby the terminals. Otherwise post sunset night-time cooling will help bring about a return of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ conditions into Thursday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon. Winds mainly onshore 5 to 15 knots during the 00Z TAF cycle. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 447 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The gradient between subtropical high pressure over the East Pacific and lower pressure over California is supporting a fresh to strong NW breeze and moderate sea heights across the waters. Conditions will be fairly consistent before a brief improvement Saturday morning. This won`t last long as a weak cold front moves through and gusty winds return by Sunday morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea