325
FXUS66 KMTR 160412
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
912 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this weekend,
as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern.
Slight warm up slated for the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Persistent onshore flow and zonal flow aloft led to a cooler than
average day around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Max temps
topped out in the 60s and 70s along the coast and 80s to mid 90s
inland. Given the stronger onshore flow, gusty winds developed in
the afternoon along the immediate coast and inland gaps/passes.
Observed peak wind gusts were 30-40 mph.

For tonight - satellite imagery shows fog deck/marine layer clouds
reforming over the ocean and already hugging portions of the
coast. Marine layer depth this morning was near 1,000 feet and
expect the same result tonight/Friday morning. The low clouds/fog
already hugging the coast will inch their way inland tonight.
Biggest impacts will be locally dense fog along the immediate
coast. Ensemble guidance has rather high probabilities to see
visibility less than 1 mile. In addition to fog, enough moisture
in the low levels maybe squeezed out in the form of patchy
drizzle.

No update needed this evening as current forecast captures fog and
drizzle impacts.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Pretty much a repeat of uneventful weather today. Similar conditions
tonight as last night, where clouds and fog will return to the coast
with some possible light drizzle near the shoreline. Otherwise,
clear skies tonight into Friday for most interior areas.
Temperatures tonight will lower into the 50s and low 60s. Maximum
temperatures will have a slight 1-3 degrees increase, but still
staying near seasonal temperatures. Inland areas will see 80s to
90s, while the coast will see temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The more notable change to the upper level pattern will be
Saturday where a trough will move over our area from the low
pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a
deeper marine layer, cooler temperatures (slightly below normal),
and stronger onshore winds during the afternoon and evening hours.
Maximum temperatures this weekend will drop to the low 70s to 80s
inland, with some isolated spots seeing 90s, and 60s along the
coast. After the weekend, ensembles and cluster analysis show
500mb heights start to increase. This can possibly bring back some
warmer seasonal temperatures and drier conditions by mid-work
week, compared to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Coastal stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ redeveloping and moving partially
inland tonight and Friday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR
by late Friday morning and afternoon. Onshore winds continuing during
the period, with areas of gusty winds during the afternoon and
evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR continues during
the evening, west wind 20 to 30 knots easing to around 10 knots late
tonight. IFR stratus ceiling forecast 11z-17z Friday, VFR thereafter
with increasingly gusty west wind near 30 knots Friday afternoon and
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR then increasing stratus and fog coverage
/LIFR-IFR/ by late evening and overnight. Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/
Friday morning improving to MVFR-VFR by late morning and afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 449 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue into the weekend
next week, with a brief lull in winds Saturday morning. A weak
cold front will then move through resulting in stronger winds and
rougher seas Sunday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea