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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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325 FXUS66 KMTR 160412 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 912 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Temperatures at or just below normal continue through this weekend, as well as breezy onshore flow and a fairly pleasant pattern. Slight warm up slated for the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Persistent onshore flow and zonal flow aloft led to a cooler than average day around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Max temps topped out in the 60s and 70s along the coast and 80s to mid 90s inland. Given the stronger onshore flow, gusty winds developed in the afternoon along the immediate coast and inland gaps/passes. Observed peak wind gusts were 30-40 mph. For tonight - satellite imagery shows fog deck/marine layer clouds reforming over the ocean and already hugging portions of the coast. Marine layer depth this morning was near 1,000 feet and expect the same result tonight/Friday morning. The low clouds/fog already hugging the coast will inch their way inland tonight. Biggest impacts will be locally dense fog along the immediate coast. Ensemble guidance has rather high probabilities to see visibility less than 1 mile. In addition to fog, enough moisture in the low levels maybe squeezed out in the form of patchy drizzle. No update needed this evening as current forecast captures fog and drizzle impacts. MM && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Pretty much a repeat of uneventful weather today. Similar conditions tonight as last night, where clouds and fog will return to the coast with some possible light drizzle near the shoreline. Otherwise, clear skies tonight into Friday for most interior areas. Temperatures tonight will lower into the 50s and low 60s. Maximum temperatures will have a slight 1-3 degrees increase, but still staying near seasonal temperatures. Inland areas will see 80s to 90s, while the coast will see temperatures in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The more notable change to the upper level pattern will be Saturday where a trough will move over our area from the low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a deeper marine layer, cooler temperatures (slightly below normal), and stronger onshore winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Maximum temperatures this weekend will drop to the low 70s to 80s inland, with some isolated spots seeing 90s, and 60s along the coast. After the weekend, ensembles and cluster analysis show 500mb heights start to increase. This can possibly bring back some warmer seasonal temperatures and drier conditions by mid-work week, compared to the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Coastal stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ redeveloping and moving partially inland tonight and Friday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Friday morning and afternoon. Onshore winds continuing during the period, with areas of gusty winds during the afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR continues during the evening, west wind 20 to 30 knots easing to around 10 knots late tonight. IFR stratus ceiling forecast 11z-17z Friday, VFR thereafter with increasingly gusty west wind near 30 knots Friday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR then increasing stratus and fog coverage /LIFR-IFR/ by late evening and overnight. Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ Friday morning improving to MVFR-VFR by late morning and afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 449 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue into the weekend next week, with a brief lull in winds Saturday morning. A weak cold front will then move through resulting in stronger winds and rougher seas Sunday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea