273
FXUS66 KMTR 170623
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1123 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1102 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Seasonal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures will continue
through the weekend into next week. Increased coverage of early
morning marine layer stratus, fog and drizzle is likely this
weekend. Less than 10% chance for thunder on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1102 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Clear skies this afternoon but clouds will return tonight along the
coast. With the approaching trough, the marine layer will deepen and
there will be a stronger onshore push. Therefore, expect clouds to
push further inland compared to the last few days. The low pressure
system over Northwest California, will bring some moisture and
possible light showers on Saturday over the northern parts of our
region, mostly over the northern zones of our waters. Models do show
some instability associated with this low, so there is a possible
chance for thunderstorms, but chances are very low (less than 10%
chance).

Temperatures tonight will see 1-3 degree difference compared to last
night but minimums will stay in the 50s to low 60s. Maximum
temperatures for Saturday will be on the cooler side compared to the
last few days as we will see a 4-10 degree drop. Some of
temperatures will be below normal as inland areas will see mostly
70s and mid 80s, with higher terrains seeing low 90s. Coastal areas
will see low 60s, high 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1102 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Temperatures will start to slowly increase on Sunday and will
push some temperatures to closer to seasonal on Monday as the
upper-level ridge that builds over central CONUS will create a
OMEGA block keeping us under a troughing pattern. Maximum
temperatures will start to return to 80s to 90s inland, and 60s
along the coast, with each day showing differences by 1-3 degrees.
Therefore, relatively similar weather conditions through most of
first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR to IFR conditions eventually
as the edge of low marine stratus offshore slowly moves closer to
the coastline after midnight. As the low clouds fill in through
the remainder of the overnight, MVFR to IFR will persist through
late morning Saturday before clearing out.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected after midnight
and will persist through mid/late morning before clearing out for
the afternoon and evening. Gusty onshore winds can be expected
during the afternoon and early evening once again.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings are slow to
develop once again but will eventually fill in over KMRY and KSNS
after midnight and persist through mid/late morning Saturday with
patchy light drizzle possible. Once clouds clear out for the
remainder of the afternoon, low stratus cloud deck should return
earlier Saturday evening than the previous few nights.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 444 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

An upper level low pressure system will dig southward tonight and
Saturday morning off the Pacific Northwest and far northern
California coast. This low will become nearly stationary through
the middle of next week. Winds will ease over the coastal waters
this weekend except remain breezy over the San Francisco Bay
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Canepa

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