252
FXUS66 KMTR 151737
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1037 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Quiet weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal through
midweek, with only slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the
work week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Temperatures are about the same as yesterday morning with a 1-2
degree difference. Another cloudy morning with satellite showing
thick clouds far inland. We should see some clear skies closer to
mid-morning when some of the diurnal heating takes into effect. No
changes in the forecast were made, as we are still on track for high
temperatures in the 60s along the coast and 70s and 80s inland, with
some isolated higher terrain spots in the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Slow moving upper level disturbance offshore of NorCal continues to
gradually lift north while eventually getting absorbed by persistent
troughing working on the northwest periphery of broad ridge over
western CONUS. A steady fetch of onshore flow will help expand the
marine layer with a push inland and advect cool ocean modified air
across our area. The net result is temperatures at or even slightly
below seasonal averages for this time of year today and tomorrow.
Expect morning fog/stratus over inland valley areas each day to lift
by early afternoon, while lingering most of the day along the
coastal shoreline, with occasional breaks allowing for some sunshine
to work through. Overall quiet weather with pleasant seasonal
temperatures to begin the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Shortwave ridging and H50 thickness increases on Wednesday will
result in a barely noticeable uptick in temperatures as the upper
level trough over the northern Pacific deepens and becomes more
organized, but struggles to make progress eastward. As the
persistent high pressure over the Four Corners region slowly expands
westward again for the second half of the week, we`ll see a gradual
climb in daytime highs to end the work week into next weekend. The
warm up for the latter part of the extended forecast is not expected
to reach the extreme levels we saw during the heat wave, with the
persistent troughing we`re seeing now remaining in place through
next weekend. Interior locations east of our forecast area will
begin to see another round of extreme heat later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Stratus continues to erode back to the coast. Therefore, VFR should
prevail for most terminals shortly after 18Z. Monterey Bay terminals
may linger a bit longer into the late morning/early afternoon.
Stratus will return early this evening bringing MVFR/IFR conditions
along the coastal terminals and will continue to push inland over
the remainder terminals. Clearing may start to occur again near 17Z
Tuesday. Onshore winds will build near the afternoon to breezy and
strong, then start to diminish into the evening hours.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR continues to lift, and is expect to become
VFR right before 18Z. Stratus will return tonight with a chance it
will alternate between SCT and BKN, therefore TEMPO was placed
between 04-06Z. Most models agree that low clouds will prevail near
06Z tonight. Onshore breezy/strong winds return in the afternoon,
then diminish tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR with stratus slowly lifting.
Expect VFR shortly after 18z. Low clouds will return this evening
bringing MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A weak disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is supporting a light
southerly breeze and low stratus clouds or fog today. As this
disturbance dissipates tomorrow, the standard East Pacific
subtropical high pressure pattern will return, bringing a moderate
to fresh NW breeze for the remainder of the week. These winds
will gradually build rough, short period seas by Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Flynn

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