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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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821 FXUS66 KMTR 162243 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 343 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 214 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Seasonal temperatures continue today before a warming trend begins tomorrow. Above average temperatures and moderate heat risk will return by the late week and continue into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Seasonal temperatures continue today with warmer temperatures returning tomorrow. High temperatures today will generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s across inland areas and in the upper 50s to 60s along the coast. Temperatures in the 90s are possible across mountainous terrain within the North Bay, East Bay, and Monterey/San Benito counties. Widespread stratus is expected to return tonight given a fairly deep marine layer with HREF showing low level clouds extending into most of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Stratus coverage is expected to dissipate by mid to late Wednesday morning as the start of the next warming trend kicks off. Temperatures warm tomorrow by on average 4-5 degrees for the Bay Area (excluding the North Bay) and the Central Coast with widespread highs in the 80s to low 90s expected. Closer to the coastline, onshore flow will help keep temperatures cooler with highs in the 60s to low 70s. For the North Bay - temperatures will warm more significantly with highs expected to be 9-10 degrees higher tomorrow than they are today. This pushes high temperatures across the North Bay into the upper 80s to low to mid 90s beginning Wednesday. Minor heat risk continues over the Bay Area and Central Coast away from the coastline as temperatures start to warm. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 214 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Confidence is increasing that hot weather will return across inland portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast beginning late this week and continuing into next week. Upper level troughing has been lingering off the West Coast for the last few days which allowed for us to return to seasonal temperatures for the past few days. Beginning Thursday, the upper level ridge, which produced our early July heat wave, will retrograde and move back westward. As a result, temperatures will increase across our CWA with widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across inland areas Thursday and Friday. Favored hot spots across the North and East Bay will see temperatures warm into the upper 90s to low 100s. Moderate heat risk returns Thursday/Friday across favored hot spots and elevated terrain in the Bay Area. Some uncertainty remains as to how high temperatures will reach Thursday/Friday with guidance showing drastically different max temperature solutions. For example, ECMWF temperatures for Santa Rosa are 10 degrees greater on Friday than those predicted by the GFS model. Such drastically different solutions indicates that there is uncertainty as to how far inland the marine layer will extend by late week. This can impact overnight low/daytime high temperatures wherein if the marine layer extends further inland it can help keep temperatures cooler at the surface but if it is confined closer to the coastline temperatures inland are likely to be warmer. However, confidence remains high, with the overall ensemble guidance trend in support, that warmer temperatures will return Thursday while some fluctuations in the current peak forecast temperatures remains possible. Drier, warmer weather continues over the weekend before temperatures look to warm more significantly early next week. By Monday, inland highs will be in the 90s with temperatures reaching into the low 100s across favored hot spots. Moderate heat risk becomes more widespread Sunday into Monday with portions of the North and East Bay seeing pockets of major heat risk in areas of elevated terrain. Looking slightly outside of this forecast period, the CPC highlights much above normal temperatures are likely to continue through at least mid next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 343 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR prevails through the late night tonight for the majority of terminals. Onshore and breezy winds will slowly decrease beyond sunset to become light for most terminals in the overnight hours. Stratus is expected to make a return to terminals tonight bringing MVFR CIGs. The return and onset of stratus will likely be late, with the majority of terminals not developing CIGs until beyond midnight. Stratus then persists through the late morning of Wednesday, with general clearing to VFR expected between 16-18Z for the majority of terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the late evening today, with moderate westerly winds. Models indicate stratus making a return towards midnight, however, confidence on this is only moderate. MVFR CIGs are likely to develop overnight and persist through the morning, though it is the onset and timing of when MVFR CIGs will begin that is uncertain. This will be something to keep an eye on this evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus will fill much of the bay tonight, bringing MVFR CIGs. Clearing not expected until late Wednesday morning, generally towards 18Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to persist through at least midnight. Low clouds will likely begin to filter into the terminal towards sunset, though MVFR CIGs will form a few hours later. Models indicate stratus CIGs forming much earlier than the previous night, however, there still does lie uncertainty in the onset time of CIGs. Stratus is likely to not clear until closer to noon Wednesday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 343 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The gradient between A light SSW breezes will transition to a gentle northwesterly breezes this afternoon as the subtropical high becomes the dominant feature and begins to strengthen. The gradient between this high and troughing over California will begin tightening tomorrow, allowing for a fresh northwesterly wind with strong gusts. Significant wave heights will build to rough by Wednesday and conditions will continue to deteriorate through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...AC MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea