739
FXUS66 KMTR 140913
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
213 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Welcomed return to near normal temperatures today through at least
midweek. Otherwise quiet weather through the extended forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Elevated light showers along an arm of weak baroclinic instability
aloft can be seen offshore of Sonoma County moving north as of 2AM
PDT. A stout inversion remains in place, especially along the coast,
with very warm dry air above the marine boundary layer up to H70.
Steep lapse rates from H70 to H50 are helping to drive what little
shower activity is possible over our area attm, otherwise any
shallow convection is unlikely through the remainder of the
overnight hours into later this morning. Temperatures will continue
their gradual cool down today with most locations farther inland
that have seen triple digit heat the past week or more, dropping
into the 90s providing some welcomed relief. The marine layer will
expand farther inland today and tomorrow, helping to cool
temperatures even further for locations in proximity to coast.
Interior locations away from the marine layer influence will see
highs mostly in the upper 70s and 80s today and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The persistent dome of high pressure over the Four Corners region
begins to steadily amplify towards the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
into Tuesday before the ridge axis begins to pivot to the east.
Persistent troughing on the western periphery of the ridge across
northern and central California will help keep cooler temperatures
aloft over our area and surface temperatures right around normal for
this time of year through at least midweek. Extended guidance has
strengthened a disturbance to help breakdown the ridging later
this week, which has slowed the progress of increasing daytime
highs for the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

IFR CIGS are moving inland and have already filled over the Monterey
Bay terminals. OAK and the North Bay terminals look to fill later
into the night with IFR CIGs. Pockets of mist will affect
visibilities around the region over night as well. CIGs erode into
the mid to late morning with moderate to breezy winds arriving into
the afternoon. Winds reduce Sunday evening as more widespread CIGs
push inland.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into Sunday night with passing high
clouds through the TAF period. Winds stay moderate through the late
morning, becoming breezy and gusty in the afternoon, reducing into
into Sunday night. MVFR CIGs build into the SF Bay that evening and
look to fill over SFO after nightfall.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR CIGs and mist last into the late
morning for SNS but into the afternoon for MRY. As CIGs dissipate,
moderate westerly winds build into the area. These winds reduce into
the night, as IFR CIGs move inland Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Radar currently shows a few isolated showers over the waters.
Slight chances of light rain and drizzle will persist through the
weekend over the waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate northerly
winds continue through the afternoon today but begin to turn more
southerly starting Sunday. These light southerly winds are
expected to continue through the middle part of next week, but
then turn to become more northwesterly beyond then.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...AC

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