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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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156 FXUS66 KMTR 141725 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1025 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 911 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Between the deepening marine layer and the upper level disturbance moving through the region, cooler conditions will prevail across the region today, with near to below normal temperatures continuing through the majority of the week. Expect low clouds and fog to be possible each night and through the morning hours, especially along the coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level disturbance lifting over Northern California this morning, which will continue to bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to our north and east today. Visible imagery shows a nice cloud shield with the disturbance mainly to our north and east, along with some thunderstorms already ongoing over the Sierra. In the meantime, visible imagery also shows the marine layer pushed well inland this morning. The Fort Ord shows the marine layer has deepened to around 2000 feet this morning, and as such, we have seen some drizzle along the immediate coast. In fact, a couple of sites have picked up a hundredth. Will do a quick update to temperatures this morning, given that the marine push should keep even our hottest spots below the triple digit mark today. There is an outside chance, albeit extremely small, that we could see a lightning strike or two in North Bay today, but overall, not impressed at the elevated instability. Palmer && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 211 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Elevated light showers along an arm of weak baroclinic instability aloft can be seen offshore of Sonoma County moving north as of 2AM PDT. A stout inversion remains in place, especially along the coast, with very warm dry air above the marine boundary layer up to H70. Steep lapse rates from H70 to H50 are helping to drive what little shower activity is possible over our area attm, otherwise any shallow convection is unlikely through the remainder of the overnight hours into later this morning. Temperatures will continue their gradual cool down today with most locations farther inland that have seen triple digit heat the past week or more, dropping into the 90s providing some welcomed relief. The marine layer will expand farther inland today and tomorrow, helping to cool temperatures even further for locations in proximity to coast. Interior locations away from the marine layer influence will see highs mostly in the upper 70s and 80s today and Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The persistent dome of high pressure over the Four Corners region begins to steadily amplify towards the Pacific Northwest tomorrow into Tuesday before the ridge axis begins to pivot to the east. Persistent troughing on the western periphery of the ridge across northern and central California will help keep cooler temperatures aloft over our area and surface temperatures right around normal for this time of year through at least midweek. Extended guidance has strengthened a disturbance to help breakdown the ridging later this week, which has slowed the progress of increasing daytime highs for the end of the week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Stratus continues to cover much of the area terminals this morning, but is expected to clear towards noon to lead to widespread VFR conditions. Breezy NW winds will return in the afternoon today for most terminals. Stratus will make an early return in the evening, bringing MVFR/IFR conditions, and winds will ease to become light. Confidence on CIGS lowering to LIFR conditions in the overnight hours tonight is currently very low given troughing and the associated lifting influence. Highest confidence is in CIGs maintaining at IFR altitudes through the night. Stratus then clears in the late morning of Monday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the early evening today, though stratus will begin to filter in towards the 00Z hour bringing a few low clouds over the terminal. Winds onshore and moderate in the afternoon, later easing to become light in the night. MVFR CIGs develop towards the late night and then last through the morning of Monday. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus and low clouds will fill into the Bay overnight with predominantly MVFR CIGs. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus expected to clear towards noon today to usher in VFR conditions. However, VFR will be short lived, as coastal clouds are expected to make a return in the early evening today. IFR CIGs last through the night, and may lower, though confidence on becoming LIFR is very low. Clearing on Monday late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 437 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Slight chances of light rain and drizzle will persist through the weekend over the waters. Light to moderate northerly winds continue through the afternoon today but begin to turn more southerly starting Sunday. These light southerly winds are expected to continue through the middle part of next week, but then turn to become more northwesterly beyond then. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...AC MARINE...AC Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea