508
FXUS66 KMTR 151505
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
805 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Quiet weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal through
midweek, with only slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the
work week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Temperatures are about the same as yesterday morning with a 1-2
degree difference. Another cloudy morning with satellite showing
thick clouds far inland. We should see some clear skies closer to
mid-morning when some of the diurnal heating takes into effect. No
changes in the forecast were made, as we are still on track for high
temperatures in the 60s along the coast and 70s and 80s inland, with
some isolated higher terrain spots in the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Slow moving upper level disturbance offshore of NorCal continues to
gradually lift north while eventually getting absorbed by persistent
troughing working on the northwest periphery of broad ridge over
western CONUS. A steady fetch of onshore flow will help expand the
marine layer with a push inland and advect cool ocean modified air
across our area. The net result is temperatures at or even slightly
below seasonal averages for this time of year today and tomorrow.
Expect morning fog/stratus over inland valley areas each day to lift
by early afternoon, while lingering most of the day along the
coastal shoreline, with occasional breaks allowing for some sunshine
to work through. Overall quiet weather with pleasant seasonal
temperatures to begin the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Shortwave ridging and H50 thickness increases on Wednesday will
result in a barely noticeable uptick in temperatures as the upper
level trough over the northern Pacific deepens and becomes more
organized, but struggles to make progress eastward. As the
persistent high pressure over the Four Corners region slowly expands
westward again for the second half of the week, we`ll see a gradual
climb in daytime highs to end the work week into next weekend. The
warm up for the latter part of the extended forecast is not expected
to reach the extreme levels we saw during the heat wave, with the
persistent troughing we`re seeing now remaining in place through
next weekend. Interior locations east of our forecast area will
begin to see another round of extreme heat later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Currently IFR-MVFR at all terminals with the exception of APC and
LVK. Stratus continues to protrude inland and will begin impacting
APC and LVK shortly. Widespread VFR is expected to prevail by
late-morning. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. VFR will return
by mid-to-late morning. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest
through the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected this
afternoon and evening. Another low-end MVFR ceiling will impact the
terminal overnight with a return to VFR slated for mid-morning
tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR and calm at MRY and IFR with
northerly flow at SNS. Both terminals will briefly improve to VFR
this afternoon before IFR ceilings quickly return to both terminals
again this evening. Winds will prevail out of the west for MRY and
out of the west/northwest for SNS through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 442 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Light southerly breezes will prevail today. Gentle  northwesterly
breezes will prevail tomorrow with speeds steadily  increasing
through the forecast period with widespread strong gusts  to be
expected by Thursday. While remaining below Small Craft  Advisory
criteria, significant wave heights will begin building  tomorrow.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SO
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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