372
FXUS65 KMSO 150838
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
238 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Today will be mostly clear for much of the day,
with temperatures warming to at or just above normal for this time
of the year. This afternoon a shortwave of energy will move from
the south to north through north-central Idaho and western
Montana, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop across
most of the area. Given the time of the day and the movement of
the thunderstorms, strong gusty winds out of the south will become
a concern. Areas with the highest probability, will be locations
along Highway 93 From the Bittrroot Valley, north to Flathead
Lake, as well as the Butte/Anaconda region. These locations
currently have around a 30-40% probability wind gusts will exceed
40 mph, between 4PM and Sunset. Isolated gusts exceeding 50 mph
are not out of the question.

High resolution models have the thunderstorms reaching the
Flathead and Kootenai regions by 10PM this evening, though the
probabilities for strong winds, decrease to around 15-20%. Brief
heavy rainfall and occasional lightning will also accompany the
thunderstorms as they travel north through this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through the weekend, with near normal temperatures for this time
of the. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain the main
concerns with any thunderstorm that develops.

As we head into next week, there is uncertainty about when and how
far east the offshore trough will move inland. Current clusters
show an 85% chance that the ridge axis remains over western
Montana through mid-week and a 15% chance for the trough to
effect western Montana. The further east the trough moves, will
give the Northern Rockies a better chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. At this time, only isolated convection is
expected, with a 20-25% probability for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...A shortwave of energy will move from south to north
across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening, that will
bring the threat of thunderstorms and gusty winds to most all
aviation sites. KBTM, KSMN, KMSO and KHRF will be under that
threat from 15/2100Z-16/0100Z this evening. High resolution
models are showing around a 40% probability gusty south winds of
30-40 kts will occur as the thunderstorms move north. KGPI will
see the activity arriving between 16/0100Z-16/0400Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain the forecast for all of
western Montana until around midnight tonight.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$