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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
372 FXUS65 KMSO 150838 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 238 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...Today will be mostly clear for much of the day, with temperatures warming to at or just above normal for this time of the year. This afternoon a shortwave of energy will move from the south to north through north-central Idaho and western Montana, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop across most of the area. Given the time of the day and the movement of the thunderstorms, strong gusty winds out of the south will become a concern. Areas with the highest probability, will be locations along Highway 93 From the Bittrroot Valley, north to Flathead Lake, as well as the Butte/Anaconda region. These locations currently have around a 30-40% probability wind gusts will exceed 40 mph, between 4PM and Sunset. Isolated gusts exceeding 50 mph are not out of the question. High resolution models have the thunderstorms reaching the Flathead and Kootenai regions by 10PM this evening, though the probabilities for strong winds, decrease to around 15-20%. Brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning will also accompany the thunderstorms as they travel north through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend, with near normal temperatures for this time of the. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain the main concerns with any thunderstorm that develops. As we head into next week, there is uncertainty about when and how far east the offshore trough will move inland. Current clusters show an 85% chance that the ridge axis remains over western Montana through mid-week and a 15% chance for the trough to effect western Montana. The further east the trough moves, will give the Northern Rockies a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. At this time, only isolated convection is expected, with a 20-25% probability for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...A shortwave of energy will move from south to north across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening, that will bring the threat of thunderstorms and gusty winds to most all aviation sites. KBTM, KSMN, KMSO and KHRF will be under that threat from 15/2100Z-16/0100Z this evening. High resolution models are showing around a 40% probability gusty south winds of 30-40 kts will occur as the thunderstorms move north. KGPI will see the activity arriving between 16/0100Z-16/0400Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain the forecast for all of western Montana until around midnight tonight. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$