662
FXUS65 KMSO 111854
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...Cumulus buildups are already being observed this
afternoon, with a more organized area of convection moving into
northwest Montana. Most convection-allowing models are not
predicting significant thunderstorm activity today, but they
appear to be underestimating boundary layer moisture. Many models
are showing dewpoints in the 30s, while current observations
indicate dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s. This discrepancy
suggests there may be more thunderstorm activity this afternoon
than radar projections currently show, though coverage is still
expected to be less than yesterday. Thunderstorm activity is
forecasted to decrease this evening, but isolated storms remain
possible overnight.

Looking west on satellite imagery, a new trough is entering the
Pacific Northwest. This trough is expected to shift the flow to
southwesterly across the Northern Rockies, bringing above-average
atmospheric moisture into north-central Idaho and western Montana.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated each day, with afternoons
and evenings holding the highest chances. However, isolated
storms may also occur overnight, particularly on Monday and
Tuesday nights.

Ensemble models continue to indicate a southwesterly flow through
Wednesday and Thursday, increasing the likelihood of
thunderstorms in southwest Montana and along the Divide. Looking
ahead to next weekend, most ensemble solutions suggest a period of
unsettled weather with a deepening trough to the west, which
could lead to strong thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon, with western Montana having around a 20-30% chance of
storms by 12/0000z. Expect an increase in wildfire smoke, which
may reduce visibility. Isolated storms could linger into the
overnight hours. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to become more
widespread on Monday as a trough enters the Pacific Northwest.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$