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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
662 FXUS65 KMSO 111854 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .DISCUSSION...Cumulus buildups are already being observed this afternoon, with a more organized area of convection moving into northwest Montana. Most convection-allowing models are not predicting significant thunderstorm activity today, but they appear to be underestimating boundary layer moisture. Many models are showing dewpoints in the 30s, while current observations indicate dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s. This discrepancy suggests there may be more thunderstorm activity this afternoon than radar projections currently show, though coverage is still expected to be less than yesterday. Thunderstorm activity is forecasted to decrease this evening, but isolated storms remain possible overnight. Looking west on satellite imagery, a new trough is entering the Pacific Northwest. This trough is expected to shift the flow to southwesterly across the Northern Rockies, bringing above-average atmospheric moisture into north-central Idaho and western Montana. Thunderstorm development is anticipated each day, with afternoons and evenings holding the highest chances. However, isolated storms may also occur overnight, particularly on Monday and Tuesday nights. Ensemble models continue to indicate a southwesterly flow through Wednesday and Thursday, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms in southwest Montana and along the Divide. Looking ahead to next weekend, most ensemble solutions suggest a period of unsettled weather with a deepening trough to the west, which could lead to strong thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, with western Montana having around a 20-30% chance of storms by 12/0000z. Expect an increase in wildfire smoke, which may reduce visibility. Isolated storms could linger into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to become more widespread on Monday as a trough enters the Pacific Northwest. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$