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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
889 FXUS65 KMSO 131003 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 403 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .DISCUSSION...Another weak disturbance is moving through northwest Montana early this morning causing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This round of convection will move off into Canada by late morning. A more significant disturbance is currently over southern Idaho and will move up into north central Idaho, west central and southwest Montana today. Then this afternoon stronger storms are anticipated to develop across west central and southwest Montana with the capability of heavy rain. Temperatures today are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. A weak ridge of high pressure slides over the Northern Rockies on Wednesday allowing for a decrease in the potential for convection. This respite in convection will be short-lived as another disturbance makes its way through the Northern Rockies on Thursday into Friday. This feature will once again bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. After the passage of this disturbance, a ridge of high pressure appears to develop over the Northern Rockies as a significant low pressure system digs along the Pacific coast. This ridge will cause some warming and drying over the region. The models start to diverge on their solutions for the low pressure system off the coast. Around 60% of the models have the low move slightly inland causing the upper level flow to become southwesterly by Sunday which is conducive to the development of stronger thunderstorms over the Northern Rockies. While around 25% keep the low off the coast more, meaning a ridge of high pressure for the Northern Rockies. && .AVIATION...A disturbance is causing a line of showers to move through northwest Montana early this morning. A larger disturbance over southern Idaho will move into the region by mid morning causing widespread showers and thunderstorm. This afternoon portions of west central and southwest Montana could be affect by stronger thunderstorm with the potential of heavy rain and some hail. All terminals will be affected by convection throughout the day. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$