366
FXUS63 KMQT 120652
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
252 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather is expected for the first half of the week.

- Chances for showers and maybe some thunderstorms increase late
  next week, but confidence in timing and track is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an elongating mid-level
low over eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Hard to discern if
there are any additional shortwaves wrapping around the backside of
this low, but it looks like there could be weak shortwave moving
through the Arrowhead of MN aiding in the formation of diurnal
shower development there. Otherwise over our area, there is an
area of fair weather diurnal cu over the mainly over east half
and southern tier portions of the UP. Temps this afternoon have
ranged from the mid to upper 60s over east half portions under
more persistent clouds to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

Tonight, only forecast issue is whether any of the light showers
over the Arrowhead/northern MN could sneak across the lake into the
far western UP this evening. I did put slight chc pops in to account
for this as a few of the CAMs seem to suggest this could be a
possibility. Otherwise, look for min temps tonight mostly in the 50s
under partly cloudy skies. A few upper 40s could be possible over
the eastern interior where max temps have been a bit cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High pressure ridging moves over the Great Lakes region early this
week and hangs on into Wednesday to possibly even Thursday to keep
dry and mostly sunny conditions over us for the next few days.
Because of this, we can expect light winds, mainly driven by the
lake breezes in the afternoon hours, and high temperatures near to
slightly above normal for the next few days (a.k.a. highs around 80
F). As for lows, expect them to be around 50 inland to around 60 by
the shoreline over the next few nights; temperatures look to warm
ever-so-slightly over the next couple of days as the high pressure
ridging tries to hold on over the area as troughing begins to push
in from the west by the middle of this week. Outside of some diurnal
cu, no other clouds or weather is expected until late Wednesday at
the earliest, when some high level clouds could begin moving into
the west.

It still looks like we will see some rainfall sometime during the
latter part of this week. However, model uncertainty still remains
rather high at this time as the troughing responsible is just now
making landfall into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia.
Therefore, while the differing model suites do show a shortwave low
developing over the Plains and lifting into the Upper Midwest late
this week, the uncertainty in the timing and track of the low at
this time still remains high. Nevertheless, model and ensemble
guidance continues to trend the timing of the precipitation further
back, with the NBM now bringing the rainfall into the west as early
as Thursday. In addition, there is good model agreement on
temperatures lowering towards the end of this week into this weekend
as the shortwave low moves through the Upper Midwest; temperatures
are expected to return to normal to slightly below normal, much like
what we`ve just recently experienced over the past couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions to continue for the duration of TAF period with no
wind impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through the period,
although some easterly gusts up to 20 knots look possible over the
western half of the lake late Thursday as troughing and a shortwave
low push in from the west. In addition, some thunderstorm activity
looks possible for the latter portion of this week (beginning as
soon as Thursday) as the shortwave low moves through the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP