404
FXUS63 KMQT 121914
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather is expected for the first half of the week.

- Chances for showers and maybe some thunderstorms increase late
  next week, but confidence in timing and track is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery shows a fair weather cu field
over roughly 2/3 of the UP this afternoon with some taller more
agitated cu across the state line in WI. Aloft, isoheight gradients
are very broad at virtually all levels of the atmosphere as
troughing departs to the east and very broad ridging is to the west.
This is leading to a very broad but very weak surface high over much
of the central-eastern CONUS and thus, fair weather but not entirely
clear. Despite only weak synoptic inhibition, the UP will remain dry
today as nowhere in the UP away from the immediate vicinity of the
MI/WI state line has PoPs exceeding 15% per the 12Z HREF. CAMs show
lake breezes off of the Great Lakes today, most notably off of the
Bay of Green Bay which should help moderate the temperatures in
eastern Delta County today. Otherwise, fairly normal late-summer
conditions are expected with high temperatures around 80 today.

Overnight, mostly clear skies will lead to a positive setup for
patchy fog. Per the HREF, the highest chances for dense fog will be
for the south-central with 10-40% chances in a triangle from Iron
River to Escanaba to Menominee. Given that patchy fog has been
overperforming guidance lately, will put patchy fog in for much of
the UP away from Lake Superior tonight, though headlines will
continue to be reactionary if at all given the uncertainty in
available boundary layer moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High pressure ridging moves over the Great Lakes region early this
week and hangs on into Wednesday to possibly even Thursday to keep
dry and mostly sunny conditions over us for the next few days.
Because of this, we can expect light winds, mainly driven by the
lake breezes in the afternoon hours, and high temperatures near to
slightly above normal for the next few days (a.k.a. highs around 80
F). As for lows, expect them to be around 50 inland to around 60 by
the shoreline over the next few nights; temperatures look to warm
ever-so-slightly over the next couple of days as the high pressure
ridging tries to hold on over the area as troughing begins to push
in from the west by the middle of this week. Outside of some diurnal
cu, no other clouds or weather is expected until late Wednesday at
the earliest, when some high level clouds could begin moving into
the west.

It still looks like we will see some rainfall sometime during the
latter part of this week. However, model uncertainty still remains
rather high at this time as the troughing responsible is just now
making landfall into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia.
Therefore, while the differing model suites do show a shortwave low
developing over the Plains and lifting into the Upper Midwest late
this week, the uncertainty in the timing and track of the low at
this time still remains high. Nevertheless, model and ensemble
guidance continues to trend the timing of the precipitation further
back, with the NBM now bringing the rainfall into the west as early
as Thursday. In addition, there is good model agreement on
temperatures lowering towards the end of this week into this weekend
as the shortwave low moves through the Upper Midwest; temperatures
are expected to return to normal to slightly below normal, much like
what we`ve just recently experienced over the past couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions expected to dominate at all sites this TAF period.
Winds will generally be light and subject to lake breezes. The
biggest forecast impact will be the potential development of FG
overnight. Currently only putting a TEMPO at SAW and leaving out at
CMX/IWD as SAW has about 33% chances of MVFR or lower vis while CMX
and IWD are less than 20%, but some uncertainty exists regarding the
availability of surface moisture tonight. A similar outcome to last
night (transient patches of FG) is possible. A few -SHRA and TSRA
are possible in the interior western UP tomorrow afternoon, but it
is highly uncertain if they will impact any of these terminals, so
any mention of RA is left out of the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through the period,
although some easterly gusts up to 20 knots look possible over the
western half of the lake late Thursday as troughing and a shortwave
low push in from the west. In addition, some thunderstorm activity
looks possible for the latter portion of this week (beginning as
soon as Thursday) as the shortwave low moves through the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP