289
FXUS63 KMQT 130514
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
114 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry weather is expected for the first half of the
  week, although some isolated lake breeze thunderstorms are possible
  Tuesday interior west and central.

- Chances for showers and maybe some thunderstorms increase late
  in the week with the best chance of rain looking like late
  Thursday into Friday with lingering showers into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery shows a fair weather cu field
over roughly 2/3 of the UP this afternoon with some taller more
agitated cu across the state line in WI. Aloft, isoheight gradients
are very broad at virtually all levels of the atmosphere as
troughing departs to the east and very broad ridging is to the west.
This is leading to a very broad but very weak surface high over much
of the central-eastern CONUS and thus, fair weather but not entirely
clear. Despite only weak synoptic inhibition, the UP will remain dry
today as nowhere in the UP away from the immediate vicinity of the
MI/WI state line has PoPs exceeding 15% per the 12Z HREF. CAMs show
lake breezes off of the Great Lakes today, most notably off of the
Bay of Green Bay which should help moderate the temperatures in
eastern Delta County today. Otherwise, fairly normal late-summer
conditions are expected with high temperatures around 80 today.

Overnight, mostly clear skies will lead to a positive setup for
patchy fog. Per the HREF, the highest chances for dense fog will be
for the south-central with 10-40% chances in a triangle from Iron
River to Escanaba to Menominee. Given that patchy fog has been
overperforming guidance lately, will put patchy fog in for much of
the UP away from Lake Superior tonight, though headlines will
continue to be reactionary if at all given the uncertainty in
available boundary layer moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Expect warm and mostly dry weather to prevail for our forecast area
Tuesday into Wednesday thanks to high pressure and mid level ridging
holding fast over the area. Daytime temps each day are expected to
climb into the upper 70s/around 80F near the lakeshores to mid 80s
interior with overnight lows in the 60s by the lakeshores and 50s
interior. Winds should be mostly light with afternoon lake breezes.
Some buildup of diurnal instability of 500 j/kg or less in a weak
shear environment could maybe result in some isolated non-severe
thunderstorms developing Tue afternoon/early evening focused along
developing lake breezes so have included slight chc pops over
portions of the western and central interior to account for this
possibility. Skies each day are expected be partly cloudy to mostly
clear, save for diurnal cumulus development in the afternoon hours.

Toward the end of the week, an elongated mid-level trough will push
through central North America. Within this trough, a surface low is
expected to develop over the Northern/Central Plains ahead of a
shortwave lifting nne through the region. Models and ensembles have
this sfc low gradually moving into the Upper Great Lakes region late
week hopefully bringing with it, much needed rainfall beginning on
Thursday and likely continuing into the weekend. There is some model
uncertainty after Saturday but most of the deterministic model runs
and ensemble means suggest ridging and drier conditions will return
late weekend (Sunday) into early next week. Regarding temperatures,
after the warmup early this week temperatures will trend a bit
cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with the arrival of rain and
more cloud cover late this week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Mainly VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period.  However,
there is a chance for MVFR or worse fog at SAW again early this
morning.  Will highlight this in a tempo from Tue 08-12Z. Elsewhere,
confidence remains too low to include mention of fog at IWD or CMX.
And probabilities are also too low for shower/thunderstorm mention
this afternoon at any TAF site at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Winds of 20kts or less are expected through the first half of the
coming week thanks to high pressure over the region. Toward the end
of the week, a system ejecting out of the Plains will support
surface low development. The low will track into the Great Lakes
Thursday-Friday, but there`s still low confidence on its exact
track. If it takes on a northern route, its possible SE-E winds
could increase to 20kts or higher Thursday with northerly winds to
20kts or higher behind the system Friday into Saturday. This
contrasts with the southern option, which generally keeps winds
below 20kts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Voss