130
FXUS63 KMQT 281201
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
801 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and thunderstorms lift into Upper Michigan this
  evening and tonight. Some strong storms can`t be ruled out
  into tonight, mainly near Wisconsin over the west half of
  Upper Michigan.

- There is a slight chance of strong to severe storms Sunday
  afternoon/evening. Should organized storms occur, large hail
  and damaging winds will be the main severe weather hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 509 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

High pressure ridging extending over the UP yields a mostly dry
weather day today. Lingering low cloud cover this morning should
clear out by this afternoon, and then with mostly sunny skies, WAA
brings above normal temps back to the region with highs this
afternoon in the 70s to low 80s. A lake breeze off Lake Superior is
anticipated, but may struggle later in the day as S gradient flow
strengthens.

This morning to the W, a few weak waves are noted on early morning
RAP analysis with WV imagery also highlighting a stronger wave
currently over W MN. At the sfc, the radar mosaic is lit up with
convection along the warm front setting up into MN. This is expected
to move SE, following outflow influence/better low level moisture
and remain outside the CWA...but likely impacting convection later
today. While hit and miss CAMs models/runs bring some residual light
reflectivities into the W earlier in the day, the focus is more on
tonight when this ridging begins to break down. Late this afternoon,
some diurnal convection begins near a warm front setting up over S
MN and W WI as instability increases. A reinforcing weak shortwave
and cold front over the Dakotas/W MN then kick off the main
convection which will progress E toward the Upper Midwest with the
strengthening LLJ. The environment will be supportive of strong to
severe storms with HREF mean MUCAPE indicating around 1000-1500j/kg
(deterministic solutions reaching higher, with up to 2500 j/kg),
highest SW. Also, mid level lapse rates will be near 7C/km with at
least 30 kts of bulk shear. The main threats would be damaging winds
and large hail. Where there still is some uncertainty is how far N
these storms will be able to reach into the CWA. This morning
convection may prevent the better buoyancy from reaching into the
CWA, keeping the strong to severe threat primarily contained in WI.
While the 0Z CAM suite did note an uptick in solutions with shra/-
tsra in our CWA, the hard hitting model really only was the HRRR,
which has fallen more in line with the rest of the CAMS with the 6Z
run this morning. Mesoanalysis in the short term will heavily drive
the fcst going forward. Generally any -tsra will hold off until
around or after sunset, progressing E across the area tonight and
diminishing into Sun. Otherwise, expect mild temps tonight in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Long term period begins Sunday with sprawling mid-upper level
ridging stretching across most of southern CONUS, with a trough
slowly lifting north along the southern California coastline. Across
the northern tier, near-zonal flow with two troughs embedded within
are noted among the deterministic suite. The first and downstream
one looks to push offshore of Maine through the day and the second,
and more notable trough, stretches south from Manitoba into the
Northern Plains. Ahead of this, a few different shortwaves are
expected, with the initial wave pressing into Upper Michigan by
Sunday afternoon. There are still timing and positional differences
among the deterministic suites for the accompanying warm and cold
fronts, but the general consensus is for an exiting warm front Sunday
morning stretching eastward/southeastward across the Keweenaw into
central/eastern Upper Michigan with the cold front progged to press
west to east through the forecast area in the afternoon into the
overnight hours. As the warm front pushes east through the morning,
lingering showers and thunderstorms in our forecast area should
follow. Through the day Sunday, very strong instability,
characterized by MUCAPE growing to 2000-3000j/kg within the warm
sector, under persistent southwesterly 20-30kt 925-0850mb flow will
help support an environment capable of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front by afternoon. Main area of
development looks to be the central third but scattered
showers/storms may develop across the east half as well. Deep layer
shear isn`t very impressive, but steepening mid-level lapse rates to
7-8C/km and DCAPE potentially growing to 1000-1500j/kg suggests
large hail and strong to damaging wind hazards in any organized
storm. Precip will press eastward overnight, potentially lingering
into Monday morning across the east.

Surface high pressure will build in afterwards that`ll linger
through a majority of the week. However, the mid-upper level trough
axis associated with Sunday`s precip will press through Monday with
another shortwave diving southeast into the Upper Great lakes
Tuesday evening. These may help support additional rounds of
afternoon/evening showers or storms each day, particularly Monday
associated with the slow to exit cold front in the east. At the
moment, instability is lacking, so strong to severe storms aren`t
expected. Surface ridge axis presses through Wednesday, which looks
to keep things dry.

Southerly flow will support a warm and humid day Sunday, with
widespread 80s and dewpoints near 70. We`ll cool afterwards with 80s
Monday and upper 70s to low 80s through at least mid-week. Overnight
lows Sunday night will be mild, with widespread 60s. Monday night
and onward, overnight lows mostly look to be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 801 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

High pressure extending over the UP keeps much of the 12Z TAF period
dry under VFR conditions, but potential for shra/tsra with MVFR
flight conditions return this evening/tonight as the ridging breaks
down. Some stubborn low cigs this morning at CMX and IWD and patchy
fg at IWD should lift/clear out within the next hour or two,
returning both sites to VFR under high clouds streaming overhead.
Left tsra out of CMX TAF due to low confidence, but kept PROB30
groups in for tsra at IWD/SAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 509 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

High pressure building in will allow lingering westerly winds up to
20 kts this morning to settle by this afternoon. Winds and waves
then remain mostly calm as only weaker pressure systems affect the
lake for the weekend into next week, though periodic thunderstorms
may occasionally be over the lake, with the highest chances being
late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...Jablonski/PK