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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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053 FXUS63 KMQT 140626 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 226 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers possible over the north central this afternoon via the lake breeze. - Wet period later this week with showers and maybe some thunderstorms developing Thursday, continuing Friday, then lingering, but diminishing on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure continues to hang over the region today, keeping skies mostly clear into this evening. That being said, webcams, observations, and satellite imagery show some thin patches of fog developing across the Upper Peninsula early this morning, reducing visibilities here and there. While dense fog is not expected this morning, be alert for wildlife and other vehicles when going through the fog patches. Current observations have the temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area; I`m thinking that the temperatures will lower a few more degrees before the sun rises. Once the sun rises, expect any fog to quickly dissipate. Moving into the daylight hours, expect a near rinse-and-repeat of yesterday. However, with more stable air in the mid levels expected today, convection will have a harder time getting fired-up this afternoon in comparison to yesterday. Therefore, while there is a small (20 percent or less) chance of seeing some lake-breeze induced rain showers this afternoon (mainly over the north central), I think CIN in the mid-levels will prevent any convection from achieving glaciation (i.e. the updrafts will not get high enough in the atmosphere for thunderstorms). Otherwise, expect temperatures and winds to be about the same as what they were yesterday, save for the Lake Michigan lake breeze going further inland in comparison to the Lake Superior lake breeze. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U.S. poking up into the Great Lakes with troughing in the eastern U.S. and on the west coast 12z Wed. There is also a shortwave in the northern plains 12z Wed which heads into the northern Mississippi Valley 12z Thu. This closes off a 500 mb low Thu night which slowly moves into the upper Great Lakes on Fri. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture move into the area on Thu and remain into Fri. This will bring in the next chance for rain and could be widespread through Friday. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southern Rockies into the plains 12z Sat with a trough over the Great Lakes region. Ridging then builds into northern Rockies 12z Sun with troughing in the lower Great Lakes and then the ridge moves back into the northern plains by 12z Mon as troughing digs into the ern U.S. Troughing then tries to drop into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with a closed low. Temperatures are below normal for this forecast period. Backdoor cold front hangs around the area as well, but does look mostly dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Quiet weather and mainly VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. However, with winds turning calm tonight and clear skies overhead, patchy fog is expected to develop across the UP. This may lead to drops to IFR at all terminals, mainly in the 09-13Z timeframe. However, after seeing MIFG down to 1 1/2SM developing at IWD around midnight local time, I decided to keep this vis as the prevailing condition until 12z this morning. As for SAW, given the 50% chance of developing IFR vis, gave them a prevailing vis to 2SM with a tempo down to 1SM between 9 and 12z this morning. At CMX, have chosen to handle this with a TEMPO given lower confidence in fog impacting conditions there (around 25% chance). Patchy fog will burn off in the morning sun. The only forecast concerns for the remainder of the period are showers and thunderstorms along lake breeze development in the afternoon, but opted to leave coverage out of the TAFs for now since confidence on timing and exact location is very low (less than 20% chance). && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Light winds less than 20 knots remain through Wednesday night. Thu/Fri, low pressure will develop e and ne into WI, bringing increasing easterly winds to Lake Superior. Expect winds to occasionally gust to 20-25kt, particularly Thu aftn and Thu night. Exact track of the sfc low will determine whether these stronger wind gusts continue on Fri. As the low departs, n to nw winds may gust to 20-25kt late Fri into Sat, mainly across the e half of Lake Superior. Winds then drop below 20 knots on Sunday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...LC/TAP MARINE...07