053
FXUS63 KMQT 140626
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
226 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers possible over the north central this afternoon
  via the lake breeze.

- Wet period later this week with showers and maybe some
  thunderstorms developing Thursday, continuing Friday, then
  lingering, but diminishing on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

High pressure continues to hang over the region today, keeping skies
mostly clear into this evening. That being said, webcams,
observations, and satellite imagery show some thin patches of fog
developing across the Upper Peninsula early this morning, reducing
visibilities here and there. While dense fog is not expected this
morning, be alert for wildlife and other vehicles when going through
the fog patches. Current observations have the temperatures in the
mid 50s to mid 60s across the area; I`m thinking that the
temperatures will lower a few more degrees before the sun rises.
Once the sun rises, expect any fog to quickly dissipate.

Moving into the daylight hours, expect a near rinse-and-repeat of
yesterday. However, with more stable air in the mid levels expected
today, convection will have a harder time getting fired-up this
afternoon in comparison to yesterday. Therefore, while there is a
small (20 percent or less) chance of seeing some lake-breeze induced
rain showers this afternoon (mainly over the north central), I think
CIN in the mid-levels will prevent any convection from achieving
glaciation (i.e. the updrafts will not get high enough in the
atmosphere for thunderstorms). Otherwise, expect temperatures and
winds to be about the same as what they were yesterday, save for the
Lake Michigan lake breeze going further inland in comparison to the
Lake Superior lake breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the
southern half of the U.S. poking up into the Great Lakes with
troughing in the eastern U.S. and on the west coast 12z Wed. There
is also a shortwave in the northern plains 12z Wed which heads into
the northern Mississippi Valley 12z Thu. This closes off a 500 mb
low Thu night which slowly moves into the upper Great Lakes on Fri.
850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture move into the
area on Thu and remain into Fri. This will bring in the next chance
for rain and could be widespread through Friday. Overall, did not
make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the
southern Rockies into the plains 12z Sat with a trough over the
Great Lakes region. Ridging then builds into northern Rockies 12z
Sun with troughing in the lower Great Lakes and then the ridge moves
back into the northern plains by 12z Mon as troughing digs into the
ern U.S. Troughing then tries to drop into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Tue with a closed low. Temperatures are below normal for this
forecast period. Backdoor cold front hangs around the area as well,
but does look mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Quiet weather and mainly VFR conditions are expected for the
duration of the forecast period. However, with winds turning calm
tonight and clear skies overhead, patchy fog is expected to develop
across the UP. This may lead to drops to IFR at all terminals,
mainly in the 09-13Z timeframe. However, after seeing MIFG down to 1
1/2SM developing at IWD around midnight local time, I decided to
keep this vis as the prevailing condition until 12z this morning. As
for SAW, given the 50% chance of developing IFR vis, gave them a
prevailing vis to 2SM with a tempo down to 1SM between 9 and 12z
this morning. At CMX, have chosen to handle this with a TEMPO given
lower confidence in fog impacting conditions there (around 25%
chance). Patchy fog will burn off in the morning sun. The only
forecast concerns for the remainder of the period are showers and
thunderstorms along lake breeze development in the afternoon, but
opted to leave coverage out of the TAFs for now since confidence on
timing and exact location is very low (less than 20% chance).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Light winds less than 20 knots remain through Wednesday night.
Thu/Fri, low pressure will develop e and ne into WI, bringing
increasing easterly winds to Lake Superior. Expect winds to
occasionally gust to 20-25kt, particularly Thu aftn and Thu night.
Exact track of the sfc low will determine whether these stronger
wind gusts continue on Fri. As the low departs, n to nw winds may
gust to 20-25kt late Fri into Sat, mainly across the e half of Lake
Superior. Winds then drop below 20 knots on Sunday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...LC/TAP
MARINE...07