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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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688 FXUS63 KMQT 150621 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 221 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet period with showers and some thunderstorms developing today, continuing Friday, then ending west to east on Saturday. - Generally more dry pattern for the back part of the weekend and beyond, though minor disturbances may bring the occasional shower. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A deepening low pressure over the Northern Plains approaches Upper Michigan today and will bring rainfall over at least the western half before sunset this evening. Cloud cover increases from the west today as the low approaches. This cloud cover will help to keep temperatures cooler over the U.P. today, mainly over the west and central, in addition to the rainfall; expect highs to range from the upper 60s in the interior west to around 80 in the east. With strong equivalent temperature advection moving in this afternoon and PWATs around 1.75 inches, we could see some heavy rain showers from time to time late this morning over the far west through this afternoon across the western half. These showers will be a much welcome reprieve from the abnormally dry conditions that we`ve been seeing over much of the western half of the U.P. the past couple of weeks; we can only hope that this will improve soil moisture conditions across the area. Some limited CAPE in the atmosphere could produce a few rumbles of thunder near the state border late this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The weather for the remainder of the week will be driven by a 500mb trough centered over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. The resulting surface low will be around 1005mb over the Dakotas/MN border Thursday morning, and isentropic ascent ahead of the low will bring showers to the MI/WI state line Thursday morning per HREF guidance. While a soaking rainfall is expected, flooding should not be a concern given the dry pattern the past few weeks. Virtually all of western Upper Michigan has had 50% or less of the normal precipitation for the past 30 days, with the eastern half being around normal to slightly below normal. HREF mean 6-hourly QPF rates are a quarter inch to a half inch with this system. Temperatures around 70 Thursday will lead to not much surface instability until late, so thunder will be unlikely until the late evening hours, and with only around 10 kt of 0-6km shear to work with, thunderstorms will be too disorganized to be severe. Showers continue through Friday as the center of the low pressure passes close to the UP. PWAT values approaching 1.5 inches on Friday are up to a half inch above normal for this time of year, so some heavy downpours are to be expected with the stronger storms, but with cloud cover keeping temperatures from breaking much above the lower 70s, surface instability will be somewhat lacking and 6-hourly QPF rates will only be around a quarter inch broadly on Friday per LREF guidance. The last 24 hours of guidance have somewhat slowed the departure of showers in the east as the pattern which once had three distinct troughs over the US/Canada border will become more broad as ridging builds over the central CONUS. While this does support slowing the movement of the trough to the east, it will also mean a surface high of around 1020mb will build over the Upper Great Lakes by the end of the weekend, ushering in a more dry period. Ensembles greatly vary on exact solutions into next week, but the general pattern of northwesterly flow is one that is often subject to the shortwaves that rotate around the central CONUS ridge, which means that there will be at least some slight chances (15-25%) of precipitation in the forecast through the middle of next week, though the impacts of said precip chances will be lesser. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Ceilings and visibilities deteriorate from VFR overnight to MVFR/IFR Thursday as a system lifts into the Great Lakes region and spreads rain over Upper Michigan. Rain will spread from southwest to northeast, with KIWD likely seeing rain in the morning hours and KCMX/KSAW by afternoon. As the rain moves in, gusty south to southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 kts will spread into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Wind gusts will remain below 20 kt through Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, a low pressure system will approach the Upper Great Lakes, causing easterly and southeasterly wind gusts to around 25 kt Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Wind gusts will fall to around 20 kt as winds become northerly with the low pressure passing to the south of Upper Michigan. The arrival of high pressure by the end of the weekend will result in wind gusts below 20 kt Saturday evening through the remainder of the forecast. During the period of easterlies late Thursday into Friday, waves will pick up to 4-6 feet. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...JTP MARINE...GS