Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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185 FXUS63 KMQT 210518 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 118 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the UP into early evening. Severe weather not expected. -Dry through early Monday afternoon with near-seasonal temperatures. -Showers and thunderstorms from as early as Monday afternoon to as late as Wednesday night across the area. -High pressure and dry weather return to the forecast Thursday through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Upper low over northern Quebec continues to push a weak cold front southward across Upper Michigan. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have been spotty along the front as it has moved southward across Lake Superior. Visible satellite imagery showing mainly scattered clouds ahead of the front along the WI/MI line and south central U.P. leading to modest destabilization. This zone will be the area where shra/tsra activity will be the greatest in coverage prior to 00Z. As high pressure and drier air builds into the area behind the front this evening skies will clear. With light winds and clear skies inland temperatures will fall into the 40s with 50s along the lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure sits over the western U.S. early this week as low pressure troughing over northern Quebec slowly moves east with time from early to mid this week. While ridging over Lake Superior will keep us mostly dry until Monday, with a shortwave and cold front moving into our region Monday night/Tuesday into the middle of this week, we could see showers and thunderstorms return across the Upper Peninsula as we head into the mid-week. As the high pressure ridging from the western U.S. slowly trudges eastwards with time, expect it to finally be felt over our area by around Thursday, keeping our area dry through the rest of the week into early next weekend. Additional details follow below. Expect a very pleasant day Sunday as a weak surface high pressure moves over Lake Superior. With the weak high strengthening the Lake Superior lake breeze, expect light north to northeasterly winds up to 10 mph across most of the U.P. Sunday, save for right along the Lake Michigan shoreline where the CAMs show the lake breezes colliding. While we could see a stray shower or two over the far west early Sunday, decided to keep chances at 10% or less over there as only the HRRR shows this solution; other CAMs are too dry to allow for any convection, and the better forcing is south in Wisconsin. Outside of the sunny skies, we could see min RHs get down to around 30% in some spots across the interior west and east given the radiational heating; should rainfall be lower than what`s expected today, than we could see min RHs dip into the 20 percents Sunday. Expect another pleasant night come Sunday night, with clear skies and lows getting down into the mid 40s across the interior west and east. Monday looks to be another pleasant day too, with high temperatures being a few degrees warmer as a cold front begins to descend from northern Ontario towards us. In addition, conditions at the surface may be very dry again come Monday, particularly during the morning as the high pressure over Lake Superior leaves the area; we could see min RHs get down to 30 percent over the interior east. Thankfully, expect the winds to still be fairly light and lake- breeze driven for the most part. That being said, we do have a very weak shortwave ahead of the cold front moving through Wisconsin that could bring some showers and t-storms over the interior west by the afternoon hours Monday. However, given the low shear profile over our area Monday afternoon, nothing more than garden-variety storms are expected. Rain chances across the area begin increasing Monday night through Tuesday as the weak shortwave interacts with the descending cold front from Canada. As this occurs, expect rain showers and t-storms to crawl across the U.P. from west to east Monday night into Tuesday. As the shortwave low begins to organize and deepen over the Lower Peninsula Wednesday, some of the rainfall looks to begin ending over the western U.P. as early as Tuesday night, with the rain chances ending from west to east Wednesday into Wednesday night as the low begins lifting into southern Ontario. Dry weather looks to return to the U.P. by Thursday as the low continues eastward and high pressure ridging moves overhead. The high pressure ridging looks to keep us dry for the rest of this week into early this weekend as medium range guidance shows slowly warming temperatures to end the extended period (thanks to warm air advection from the Desert Southwest). Overall, expect temperatures near normal across the area for this week, with below normal temperatures seen Tuesday and Wednesday and above normal temperatures returning by the end of this week/early next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 No forecast concerns through the forecast period. Expect VFR conditions at all sites with clearing skies and generally light north to northeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Lighter winds of generally 20 knots or less continue through the period as a few weak disturbances move through the area before high pressure ridging moves in late this week. Other than that, a few thunderstorms could be seen in the far west near Duluth late this afternoon/early this evening (30 to 40% chance) and across the entire lake from west to east with time Monday afternoon through Wednesday (25% east to 50% west). && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Voss MARINE...TAP