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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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442 FXUS63 KMQT 152341 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 741 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk (category 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms today mainly from 4-10 pm EDT. Main threat is damaging winds and large hail. - Cooler and drier for midweek with the arrival of high pressure. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Issued at 1254 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a midlevel anticyclone centered around the Four Corners and a cutoff low just southwest of Hudson Bay. Stronger 500 mb flow between these features is spreading eastward into the Upper Great Lakes, with a notable shortwave trough now progressing into northern MN. High convective debris clouds are spreading into the local area ahead of this feature and also along the northern periphery of a decaying MCS over southern MN/WI, but there is some clearing noted over northern WI where some lower cu is developing. Gradual moistening is taking place over the western UP where dewpoints are creeping back up into the low to mid-60s. Surface pattern is a bit messy, but there is a cold front apparent from roughly Thunder Bay SWWD to about Fergus Falls, MN. Modest destabilization ahead of the incoming wave/cold front should continue over roughly the SW half of the UP this afternoon due to clearing skies and weak advection of better low-level moisture. Despite midlevel lapse rates decreasing to less than 7 C/km, this should allow for the development of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE just ahead of the incoming disturbances. Further north toward the Keweenaw, Marquette area and points east, destabilization is less certain with MLCAPE likely remaining less than 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear does look good, increasing to 40-45 kt. Low-level winds are a bit more modest and may actually decrease a bit ahead of the front, leaving low-level convergence a question-mark. Still, high confidence in a rather quick-moving area of showers and thunderstorms moving across the UP from west to east this afternoon, primarily 4-10 pm EDT. Marginal risk (category 1/5) for severe weather with a few storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. Risk appears highest south of a line from roughly Manistique to Ontonagon. Cold and dry advection ensues tonight, ushering out the seasonably warm airmass of the last couple days. Skies clearing with lows in the mid-50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Upper troughing over far northern Ontario will continue to dig southward across Lake Superior on Tuesday. While drier air will be slowly working it`s way into the area behind Monday`s frontal passage, shortwave energy rotating around the trough may help initiate a few diurnal showers across the interior west and south central. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 70s on Tuesday. Main upper trough axis pushes through the U.P. late Tuesday night and Wednesday with a reinforcing cold frontal passage. Limited moisture will limit rain chances but some sprinkles/-shra will be possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Expect a broken stratucu deck to last into the afternoon hours with a persistent northwesterly breeze. Nearshore Lake Superior water temperatures are now in the 60s and that`s where temperatures will hold for Lake Superior bordering counties given northwest flow and considerable clouds hanging on into the afternoon. Highs inland should climb into the lower 70s, especially later in the day as clouds dissipate. Ridging over the northern Plains will build into the Upper Lakes Wednesday night. Clear, calm conditions will allow temperatures to fall to near 40 for interior cooler location`s...perhaps a few upper 30s. Temperatures will be milder in the 50s near the shorelines. High pressure and seasonable temperatures under lots of sunshine will be the theme for Thursday and Friday. An upper trough dropping southeast into Ontario and Quebec will push a mainly dry front southward across Lake Superior on Saturday with a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler day, especially near Lake Superior. High pressure returns for Sunday into early next week with near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front has cleared IWD and CMX this evening but will continue to affect SAW for the next few hours. Low clouds will linger at all TAF sites once showers exit to the east past midnight. Skies will begin to clear overnight and VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Winds turn out of the northwest with the cold frontal passage overnight. Afternoon wind gusts could reach upwards of 20kts, especially at CMX. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A cold front crossing the Lake late this afternoon and evening will trigger some showers and thunderstorms, but they will end by late evening. Where rain occurs, patchy dense fog will be possible before being pushed eastward on west northwesterly post frontal flow. Westerly winds may gust in excess of 20 knots on Tuesday especially along the west side and tip of the Keweenaw. As upper trough axis swings across Lake Superior Wednesday morning, winds will turn more northerly and could gust in excess of 25 knots for a time, especially over the eastern Lake. Winds will diminish by Wednesday evening as ridging builds across the Lake and will remain below 20 knots into early next week. A front sagging southward from Ontario will yield a wind shift to the north on Saturday...otherwise winds will be predominantly from a west and southwest direction. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...BW/JTP MARINE...MZ