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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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381 FXUS63 KMPX 111726 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday along and south of the MN River Valley. - Next period of active weather to come Wednesday into Thursday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another solid weather day is in store for the region as high pressure will keep the winds and cloud cover to a minimum. Temperatures will continue to rise a bit, peaking in the mid-upper 70s. Precipitation chances will generally stay northeast and southwest of central MN and western WI today, however scattered showers on the northern periphery of a weakening system is possible overnight as a notable shortwave progresses southeast from the Dakotas. The few hundredths of precip associated with this system should stay confined to the area along and south of the MN River Valley. Any precip and overcast conditions are expected to begin clearing out by late morning, making for another nice day tomorrow. Upper level ridging will start to build in from the west as early as Tuesday, resulting in our warmest day in about a week (low 80s). Albeit still at or slightly above normal for this time of year (upper 70s to low 80s). Relatively strong and persistent southerly winds will support PWAT values of 1.5"+ as far north as Nunavut in Canada, setting the stage for widespread rain chances mid week. The severe weather threat will largely depend on timing for when the system moves through, which looks to be favored for some time Wednesday night into Thursday when instability is lacking. The combination of the LLJ and substantial PWATs will certainly be enough to produce localized heavy rain in excess of 1". Many of the ensembles entertain this idea of the trough slowing down and weakening over the Great Lakes region to the end the week. This could lead to lingering scattered showers for a few days following the main show on Wed/Thu. Northerly flow on the backside of this low should lead to another slight cool down, and relatively pleasant weather conditions for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another quiet period in store with the main points being gradually increasing coverage of high level clouds, with some BKN100 cigs possible for the southern half of sites after sunset, and the other main point being a chance for patchy fog for a few sites from 08-12z. Otherwise no major impacts with winds remaining below 5kts varying in direction across all locations. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc BR early. Wind SE 5kts. WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...TDH