789
FXUS63 KMPX 170835
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
335 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

- Highs in the 80s along with airmass thunderstorm chances return
  this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

It`s a comfortable night with temperatures in the upper 50s to low
60s and mostly clear skies. An upper trough axis will pivot through
the region this morning. This places a pretty chilly airmass aloft
overhead with 850mb temperatures around 8C. A strong surface high
pressure will build into the Upper Midwest and usher in a stretch of
pleasant weather over the next few days. Highs will be on the cool
side for July, only in the low to mid 70s, but it`s a welcomed
change after last week`s hot and humid airmass. With dry air aloft,
clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to dip into the
low to mid 50s tonight and offer tired AC units an opportunity for a
break.

For the rest of the week, we`ll continue to enjoy a rarity of mild
temperatures and low humidity. The culprit will be a slow moving
pattern dominated by amped flow aloft with an impressive western
ridge and stubborn trough over eastern NOAM. We`ll be stuck in
between with subsidence overhead west of the trough. This is
actually not a bad place to be for seasonable weather conditions.
This allows a surface high to settle overhead a few days and tap
into that colder continental air from northern Canada, hence the
forecast with highs in the low to mid 70s with very comfortable
dewpoints (40s and 50s) for the rest of the week. Please find the
time to get outdoors to enjoy the best the warm season has to offer
us in the Upper Midwest. Because we all know what is waiting for us
down the road in 3.5 months...

The weekend will offer a slight change up and guidance has offered a
wide array of possible outcomes from a little precipitation to a
wash out Saturday. Our upstream pattern to the west will remain, but
downstream our upper trough will shift from the Great Lakes into far
eastern NOAM. This will shift the subsidence region out of the Upper
Midwest and allow our surface high pressure to wash out. This change
will allow for a return flow to develop, ushering in more moisture
along with southerly low level flow. This will allow highs to return
into the 80s, with dewpoints getting back into the low to mid 60s.
Add in the help from the cornbelt [evapotranspiration] and it`ll be
pretty warm and muggy. There will be chance for showers and storms
Saturday and Sunday, but the overall pattern doesn`t appear to favor
any potential severe thunderstorms, which is always good news. There
is always a certain amount of built in uncertainty with amped
patterns like this one so we`ll likely begin to see the more
realistic outcome for this weekend take shape over the next day or
so. Looking ahead to early next week, we`ll see a gradual warm up
with highs back in the low to mid 80s. Precipitation chances seem
marginal as the upper flow doesn`t evolve in a favorable manner to
get meaningful weather outside of airmass thunderstorms. There is a
signal for the return of mid to upper 80s for the second half of
next week, but there is also plenty of time for change considering
it`s 10 days out. So if you`re not a fan of "cooler" summer weather,
give it a few days and you`ll be back to a more tradition warm and
muggy scenario!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Solid VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF duration.
SCT mid-and-upper level clouds will drift southeastward around
a weak upper level circulation overnight, with skies mainly
clear by daybreak. Fair wx mid-level cumulus clouds are likely
to develop Wednesday afternoon, then dissipate Wednesday evening
allowing for clear skies Wednesday night. NW winds in the 5-10kt
range will prevail tonight through Wednesday afternoon then go
light/variable Wednesday night.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC