269
FXUS63 KMPX 160800
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A rather quiet night across the Upper MS Valley after a long stretch
of active weather. Current observations reveal a rather warm night
despite the FROPA yesterday evening. Low temperatures will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s in the Twin Cities. Our pattern will continue
the shift toward a much drier and cooler one for the rest of the
week. An upper-level trough will dig into the the western Great
Lakes. This will support a slight chance for a few showers or
sprinkles this afternoon despite limited moisture to work with. On
Wednesday, a strong surface high pressure builds into the Upper
Midwest with cooler air filtering in with it. This will be the
primary driver of the pattern over the next several days that will
translate to a nice stretch with mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures in the 70s. That`s not bad for mid-July!

Our high pressure shifts east by the end of the work week. This will
allow a gradual warm up over the weekend as highs return into the
80s. An impressive upper level ridge over the western CONUS will
attempt to build eastward with limited success. An rather amplified
flow will result in northward expansion of heights with troughing
over easter NOAM. We will find ourselves in the middle that should
maintain fairly seasonable temperatures through next weekend.
Precipitation chances remain very low through Friday evening before
slight chance PoPs return in the NBM. The NBM is likely picking up
on a shortwave that will attempt to dig into the Midwest Friday
night into Saturday. Ensembles hint at some low QPF potential for
next week that would line up with the slight chance PoPs this far
our. There isn`t a great deal of moisture to work with given
the amped northerly flow aloft so I would not expect a
meaningful severe weather potential. GEFS and EPS suggest
temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80s for early next
week. Moisture remains rather limited, but given the time of
year I suspect dew points will still be in the 60s across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Clear to mostly clear skies overnight with light winds. VFR
ceilings move in during the day on Tuesday. Northwest winds
continue with some gusty winds up to 20 knots during the day on
Tuesday. Light winds return as the sun sets. Slight chance for
some rain on Tuesday, but if it happens it should remain VFR.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.
FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC