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Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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862 AWUS01 KWNH 101639 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102235- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0855 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1238 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...far eastern GA into central and eastern SC/NC as well as southeastern VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 101636Z - 102235Z SUMMARY...Efficient rainfall production from scattered afternoon thunderstorms could result in isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding atop saturated soils. Rainfall rates are expected to vary between 1-3 in/hr. DISCUSSION...GOES East visible imagery from 1615Z showed a building cumulus field along a sea breeze boundary along the SC/NE coast as well as near/east of a slow moving front analyzed SW to NE through the central Carolinas. 12Z soundings from CHS and MHX showed a very moist environment with precipitable water values of 2.1 to 2.3 inches along with wet bulb zero heights as high as 14.7 kft. 850-300 mb mean layer winds varied from near 5 kt in SC to 10-15+ kt in NC, faster with northern extent. While there was some dry air centered near 500 mb in both soundings, with this dry layer noted on layered PW imagery, the environment will still be capable of producing rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in an hour or less time, especially as convective coverage increases later today. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next 60 minutes as surface temperatures reach their convective temperature and convergence helps to initially focus activity along the front/sea breeze boundaries. Coverage should increase throughout the afternoon near and east of the slow moving synoptic front with cell mergers and outflow interactions likely. A lack of shear loft should limit cell organization but brief training will be possible due to the weak steering flow and similarly oriented 850 mb wind vectors in many locations of the eastern Carolinas. 5-day rainfall across the region has exceeded 10 inches in some locations which has left soils saturated in most places. While additional rainfall may only reach into the 2-4 inch range and remain localized to scattered across the region, there will be enhanced sensitivity to flash flooding as thunderstorm coverage increases. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37037658 37007611 36767584 36097564 34997641 34277703 33677787 33157874 32417975 32208068 32438155 33568240 34638071 35267928 36687723