289
AWUS01 KWNH 170117
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0888
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...Southeast KS into the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170116Z - 170600Z

Summary...Cells are redeveloping and intensifying on the northern
flank of an outflow boundary across the Ozarks. Storm motions
aligned with the boundary will support instances of repeating and
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Trends in IR imagery over the last 30 minutes show
storms rapidly redeveloping and intensifying north of an outflow
boundary analyzed in the Ozarks. Redevelopment is overlapping
where localized heavy rainfall occurred earlier today in southeast
Kansas and far northwest Arkansas associated with two confined
areas of training storms.

This recent wave of organized activity is likely in part due to
strengthening vertical shear profiles and mid-level lapse rates
nosing into the region, with increasing low-level inflow also
noted in the 925-850 mb levels. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
continue to depict a very buoyant and moist airmass available to
support robust deep convection, including 5000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
1.8-1.9" PWATS in the vicinity of the boundary. Deep shear vectors
around 45 kts are oriented parallel to the boundary, which
supports a threat of cell training and repeating in spite of
generally more progressive storm motions compared to earlier.

Thus, the concern is for these increasingly organized cells to
train and repeat across the highlighted area. Earlier CAM guidance
completely missed earlier convection which does limit confidence
somewhat in how the next several hours evolve. However, the last
four runs of the HRRR have handled the activity better, and
suggest rainfall amounts of 2-3" and isolated flash flooding is
possible through 6z where cell residence times are maximized.

Asherman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38179615 37209403 36159160 35269220 35709481
            36989685 37909711