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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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289 AWUS01 KWNH 170117 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-170600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0888 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 917 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Southeast KS into the Ozarks Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 170116Z - 170600Z Summary...Cells are redeveloping and intensifying on the northern flank of an outflow boundary across the Ozarks. Storm motions aligned with the boundary will support instances of repeating and localized flash flooding. Discussion...Trends in IR imagery over the last 30 minutes show storms rapidly redeveloping and intensifying north of an outflow boundary analyzed in the Ozarks. Redevelopment is overlapping where localized heavy rainfall occurred earlier today in southeast Kansas and far northwest Arkansas associated with two confined areas of training storms. This recent wave of organized activity is likely in part due to strengthening vertical shear profiles and mid-level lapse rates nosing into the region, with increasing low-level inflow also noted in the 925-850 mb levels. Recent mesoanalysis estimates continue to depict a very buoyant and moist airmass available to support robust deep convection, including 5000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 1.8-1.9" PWATS in the vicinity of the boundary. Deep shear vectors around 45 kts are oriented parallel to the boundary, which supports a threat of cell training and repeating in spite of generally more progressive storm motions compared to earlier. Thus, the concern is for these increasingly organized cells to train and repeat across the highlighted area. Earlier CAM guidance completely missed earlier convection which does limit confidence somewhat in how the next several hours evolve. However, the last four runs of the HRRR have handled the activity better, and suggest rainfall amounts of 2-3" and isolated flash flooding is possible through 6z where cell residence times are maximized. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38179615 37209403 36159160 35269220 35709481 36989685 37909711