Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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083 AWUS01 KWNH 151331 FFGMPD FLZ000-151803- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0697 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 930 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...Space-Coast...North-Central FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151330Z - 151803Z Summary...Expanding coverage of thunderstorms containing very heavy rainfall rates exceeding 4"/hr at times could drive scattered flash flooding through 18z. Discussion...Radar along the Space Coast depicts scattered thunderstorms pivoting around a surface low (AL93), which continues to drift inland towards the coastline. Within the most intense convective cores -- some of which were exhibiting backbuilding characteristics at times -- very heavy 3-4" rainfall rates were estimated per MRMS. Coverage of these intense rainfall rates are expected to increase as a plume of very moist, unstable, and uncapped air (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.2-2.3" PWATs) advects inland with the surface low, which will align with weak 5 kt Corfidi vectors near the low center to favor additional backbuilding/training thunderstorm segments. The last 5-6 runs of the HRRR have consistently depicted a corridor of 4-7 inches across the highlighted area. This could breach the 3-4"/1-3 hr FFGs to support scattered instances of flash flooding through 18z, especially atop sensitive urban areas near the Space Coast. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 29598121 29058081 28688052 28398054 28218079 28248127 28458170 28858192 29478171